Oftentimes, the success of a MLB team correlates to how well the back of the rotation fairs throughout the season. Teams that consistently find solid performances (not necessarily wins) from their #4 and #5 starters will probably end up in the playoffs because the aces usually perform like aces most of the time (barring injury). Your fantasy team is no different.
Spend some time within the first month of the season on your pitching depth. Forget about how solid or shaky your top two starters are and ask yourself how good your pitching staff is 3-5. Among these three pitchers should be one player that is a good bet to produce numbers in line with a #2 caliber SP aka a breakout candidate. Next, make sure you have an unexciting yet durable guy who is a good bet for 30 starts. Finally the third piece of the trio should be a high strikeout guy you won’t want to start each week.
Now if you plan on streaming pitchers all season or spent a premium on pitching in your draft or auction this basic strategy does not translate as well. But the majority of fantasy owners can use these guidelines as a way to measure their pitching depth across the league. For those owners who feel they must wait until June before considering trades, keep in mind the stats your earn in April and May count and waiting around accumulating stats from a less than ideal staff can hamper your hopes of bringing home a fantasy championship.
Sellers Market
George Sherrill – Don’t dump him for anyone but a lack of experience, small ballpark and four quality lineups within the division don’t bode well for a big year even if he retains the closer job all season.
Juan Pierre – He’ll be a headache to own and his PT will drop by the week. Pawn him off on a speed-starved club.
Javier Vazquez – His current value as a low-end #2 SP puts too much stock in his solid ‘07 campaign. Expect him to deliver numbers more in line with a low-end #3 or decent #4 SP.
Dan Uggla – Pitchers simply won’t give him as much to hit this season and he’ll end up pressing. Sell him now before his average tanks and he becomes too much of a burden to carry as a starting two-bagger.
Buyers Market
Edison Volquez – At his current price (most likely free on your waiver wire) he makes for a better #4 or #5 starter than other brand names.
Rickie Weeks – If your team is low on risk, Weeks makes for a solid gamble. Only injuries will prevent him from having a solid season.
Adam LaRoche – Great depth and CI player who will see his stock rise this season. Coming off a bad year and a usually slow starter, you won’t have to break the bank to get him.
Pat Burrell – For the price, he is a solid #3 OF or UTIL player that can deliver great power numbers.
Oliver Perez – No I’m not just plugging him in after his solid outing last night. This guy has improved his control under the tutelage of Rick Peterson. Don’t be surprised if this guy ends up starting the All-Star Game.
Streamers
Jair Jurrjens – Should be owned in deep leagues (14+ teams) but for most people he’ll be a great streamer this season.
Keep an Eye On:
Gio Gonzalez – He will be a solid mid-season add to fantasy rosters and be a big boost to your strikeouts.
Josh Fields – If you have room to stash this guy he’ll eventually help you with plus power numbers. Crede will be dealt or hurt by the All-Star break.
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If you have any questions or comments I’d love to hear from you. If you have any ideas or topics you’d like me to discuss in a future COC leave them here as well. Good luck on your 2008 fantasy baseball adventure don't forget to come back next week!
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