I expected to wake up this morning, turn on the radio and catch the end of the Red Sox Yankees sock hop. But alas, the game that would not end did in fact end with a 15-9 Yankees win. How bad was the pitching? I had stopped at a local watering hole to take in a few innings but only lasted 1.2 innings myself.
My early predictions regarding Oliver Perez haven’t had much on-field support over his last two outings but I’m not about to change them. In his previous two starts, Ollie hasn’t looked very good, issuing 6 walks over just 10 innings of work. So why am I still high on Perez? He has improved significantly over the past year and a half to minimize damage when he loses his control.
In 2006 Perez was best with the bases empty (.262 BAA) but imploded with runners on base (.332 BAA). Last season he was able to improve upon those numbers posting a .225 BAA with nobody aboard and a .235 with someone on base. In his three starts this season Perez has shown the ability to stay mentally focused and fight through his control issues, currently yielding a .306 BAA with the bases empty and a mere .208 BAA with runners on (.167 BAA with RISP). Taking the next step as he has shown early in 2008 will translate to fewer bad starts and better poor starts to go along with his dominant outings.
Perez will take the hill Saturday in Philadelphia where he is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA at Citizens Bank Ballpark. What better test than to face a division rival on the road coming off two sub par performances.
Buyers Market
Kenji Johjima – He’s scorching the ball after starting the season in a 2-week slump. He’s a middle-tier catcher that might be on your waiver wire.
Prince Fielder – This guy will mash. If you are lucky you just might be able to pry this HR-machine away from a disgruntled owner.
Yovanni Gallardo – He’ll be back in the rotation this weekend to begin what should be a very solid 2008 campaign for the Brewers young hurler.
Oliver Perez - Couple of poor outings have deflated his value (see above).
Sellers Market
Gabe Kapler – Nobody thought Pena would keep it up all season, but Pena was a decent prospect and perhaps more significantly, wasn’t coaching in the minors the year before.
Hunter Pence – A .161 AVG without a HR, a 2:16 walk to strikeout ratio and dropping in the batting order.
Fausto Carmona – Getting value based on last year’s success. His 7 GIDPs have kept his ERA down but his 1.65 WHIP will catch up to him. By the way, if you are looking for news and insight on the Indians, check out Lets Go Tribe!
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Chuggin' Along: Boxing Has A Pulse
I’m not a boxing fan myself and am in no way knowledgeable enough to analyze the sport, but I’ll watch a good fight. For the first time in a long time, there seems to be a little buzz coming from the sport of boxing. A couple nice fights, quality Tarver smack talk and what appears to be some interesting potential future bouts might actually reel in the casual sports fan.
Looks like Tiger will have to head to Denny’s for that Grandslam. Trevor Immelman played solid golf from the opening tee just months following surgery to remove a tumor from his ribcage. I happen to like Tiger but I’m all for seeing someone new winning a tournament. Augusta looked beautiful and even on television those greens looked like the Appalachians.
At the start of the 2007-08 men’s hoops season hardly anyone knew had heard or knew of Keno Davis. Despite losing to Western Kentucky in the opening round of the 2008 NCAA tournament, Davis earned numerous Coach of the Year accolades. Last week, he cashed in on his Cinderella season by accepting the head-coaching job at Providence. While I believe the MVC is a great conference, the chances of Davis maintaining success at a school most noted for its scholarly achievements would be slim at best. The situation at Providence will certainly be a challenge, but it offers more money and a chance at long-term coaching success that Drake simply can’t match. Good Luck Keno!
I’m planning on covering the NHL Playoffs next week so I’m not going get into too much detail here, however the Canadiens are looking awfully tough behind Carey Price who just notched his first career playoff shutout and is now 15-4 since Montreal traded away Cristobal Huet. There’s a lot of hockey to be played but I’m having a hard time believing the Stanley Cup Finals won’t be played in Montreal this season.
The train’s final stop brings us to College Football where the NCAA went out of its way to avoid its own version of SpyGate. I am shocked! You mean to tell me that nowhere in the current thousands of pages of rules, regulations, and bylaws there wasn’t any mention of such an act of cheating?
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Feel free to leave any questions, comments or ideas and thanks for stopping by the Sports Depot!
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Can of Corn: Baseball Thermos
The Baltimore Orioles are leading the AL East, the Detroit Tigers are cellar dwellers in the AL Central and Johan Santana’s New York Mets are a game and a half out at 3-4 in the NL East. So what do we make of the early starts and struggles? Who will stay cold and who will stay hot? Let's check the temperature of baseball's thermos.
The Orioles are playing well but the chances of them being the only team above .500 in that division are about as good as Peter Angelos winning a World Series any time soon. Last week, I noted that O’s closer George Sherrill was a nice sell high candidate. Considering the injuries to Seattle’s J.J. Putz, and Atlanta’s Rafael Soriano, Trevor Hoffman and Eric Gagne’s shaky starts and the lack of opportunities for Billy Wagner and Todd Jones, I’d say there is a market for Sherrill.
As for the Tigers, they have plenty to worry about. Heading into the season with a shaky bullpen is never a good thing, but when you are getting little from what was supposed to be a juggernaut of an offense it takes eight games to notch a win. With few prospects left to trade, Detroit’s bullpen woes might resemble those of the White Sox last season when the Palehose’s ERA after the sixth inning was 5.55 (second worst in baseball to Tampa Bay). Unless the bats awake in a big way, Detroit will continue to play like kittens.
Much of New York’s sports talk radio spent yesterday talking Mets fans down from ledges. Despite the Mets early struggles this team is not merely built to win games, but to contend. There are things to worry about, most notably Jose Reyes’ .242 OBP over the first seven games, but the Mets should bounce back behind what appears to be a very solid pitching staff. Losing Pedro, who I felt was more of a #4 or #5 starter due to his lower projected innings, will not hurt this team as badly as many think. Running the trio of Santana, Perez and Maine out there each week will be just fine to compete in the NL.
The start of a season is always scrutinized and the same holds true in fantasy baseball where knee-jerk reactions occur daily. Corey Patterson currently leads all hitters in slugging with a .833 mark over 30 at-bats and we all know that won’t last. Magglio Ordonez, Mike Lowell and Troy Tulowitzki drove in a combined 358 runs last season but have combined for zero RBI to this point in 2008. So what’s the point? Be patient with your players’ slow starts and opportunistic when your league-mates decide to cut bait with players who had a bad week.
The Orioles are playing well but the chances of them being the only team above .500 in that division are about as good as Peter Angelos winning a World Series any time soon. Last week, I noted that O’s closer George Sherrill was a nice sell high candidate. Considering the injuries to Seattle’s J.J. Putz, and Atlanta’s Rafael Soriano, Trevor Hoffman and Eric Gagne’s shaky starts and the lack of opportunities for Billy Wagner and Todd Jones, I’d say there is a market for Sherrill.
As for the Tigers, they have plenty to worry about. Heading into the season with a shaky bullpen is never a good thing, but when you are getting little from what was supposed to be a juggernaut of an offense it takes eight games to notch a win. With few prospects left to trade, Detroit’s bullpen woes might resemble those of the White Sox last season when the Palehose’s ERA after the sixth inning was 5.55 (second worst in baseball to Tampa Bay). Unless the bats awake in a big way, Detroit will continue to play like kittens.
Much of New York’s sports talk radio spent yesterday talking Mets fans down from ledges. Despite the Mets early struggles this team is not merely built to win games, but to contend. There are things to worry about, most notably Jose Reyes’ .242 OBP over the first seven games, but the Mets should bounce back behind what appears to be a very solid pitching staff. Losing Pedro, who I felt was more of a #4 or #5 starter due to his lower projected innings, will not hurt this team as badly as many think. Running the trio of Santana, Perez and Maine out there each week will be just fine to compete in the NL.
The start of a season is always scrutinized and the same holds true in fantasy baseball where knee-jerk reactions occur daily. Corey Patterson currently leads all hitters in slugging with a .833 mark over 30 at-bats and we all know that won’t last. Magglio Ordonez, Mike Lowell and Troy Tulowitzki drove in a combined 358 runs last season but have combined for zero RBI to this point in 2008. So what’s the point? Be patient with your players’ slow starts and opportunistic when your league-mates decide to cut bait with players who had a bad week.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Chuggin' Along: From San Antonio to Augusta
Kansas wins the 2008 NCAA Men's National Basketball Championship and Bill Self(ish) wants “security.” I don’t blame him, I’d like some more job security as well, but is this really what it has come to in collegiate athletics? Seems so and not just in college basketball. What about the coach who wins three games with a team full of players who will actually graduate?Maybe it’s the changing of the seasons or my love for food but when I first read the match up for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Final my first thought was BBQ. If only the game was played in Carolina.
Great job by the Lady Vols who captured their second straight Women’s NCAA Basketball title. Pat Summit has now won eight championships. Not to diminish the feat, but when the best recruits in the nation are coming to you and knocking on your door each year, you should be winning championships.
Matt Stover’s call to remove Gene Upshaw as the President of the NFL Players Union in an email has been downplayed by Kevin Mawae, the new president of the union. What is it with kickers? Stover probably won’t even be around by the time the new CBA is negotiated.
And last but certainly not least, the train pulls into Georgia this week where everyone is green with envy at the 2008 Masters tournament. All eyes are on Tiger, but my dark-horse candidate to put on the green jacket is Jose Maria Olazabal and Scott Pianowski agrees.
As far as watching golf goes, this is one event even a casual sports fan should watch. If you are unfamiliar or just want to get reacquainted with Augusta National you can get information on each hole with a flyover here.
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Feel free to leave any questions, comments or ideas and thanks for stopping by the Sports Depot!
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Can of Corn: Pitching Depth Is Key
Oftentimes, the success of a MLB team correlates to how well the back of the rotation fairs throughout the season. Teams that consistently find solid performances (not necessarily wins) from their #4 and #5 starters will probably end up in the playoffs because the aces usually perform like aces most of the time (barring injury). Your fantasy team is no different.
Spend some time within the first month of the season on your pitching depth. Forget about how solid or shaky your top two starters are and ask yourself how good your pitching staff is 3-5. Among these three pitchers should be one player that is a good bet to produce numbers in line with a #2 caliber SP aka a breakout candidate. Next, make sure you have an unexciting yet durable guy who is a good bet for 30 starts. Finally the third piece of the trio should be a high strikeout guy you won’t want to start each week.
Now if you plan on streaming pitchers all season or spent a premium on pitching in your draft or auction this basic strategy does not translate as well. But the majority of fantasy owners can use these guidelines as a way to measure their pitching depth across the league. For those owners who feel they must wait until June before considering trades, keep in mind the stats your earn in April and May count and waiting around accumulating stats from a less than ideal staff can hamper your hopes of bringing home a fantasy championship.
Sellers Market
George Sherrill – Don’t dump him for anyone but a lack of experience, small ballpark and four quality lineups within the division don’t bode well for a big year even if he retains the closer job all season.
Juan Pierre – He’ll be a headache to own and his PT will drop by the week. Pawn him off on a speed-starved club.
Javier Vazquez – His current value as a low-end #2 SP puts too much stock in his solid ‘07 campaign. Expect him to deliver numbers more in line with a low-end #3 or decent #4 SP.
Dan Uggla – Pitchers simply won’t give him as much to hit this season and he’ll end up pressing. Sell him now before his average tanks and he becomes too much of a burden to carry as a starting two-bagger.
Buyers Market
Edison Volquez – At his current price (most likely free on your waiver wire) he makes for a better #4 or #5 starter than other brand names.
Rickie Weeks – If your team is low on risk, Weeks makes for a solid gamble. Only injuries will prevent him from having a solid season.
Adam LaRoche – Great depth and CI player who will see his stock rise this season. Coming off a bad year and a usually slow starter, you won’t have to break the bank to get him.
Pat Burrell – For the price, he is a solid #3 OF or UTIL player that can deliver great power numbers.
Oliver Perez – No I’m not just plugging him in after his solid outing last night. This guy has improved his control under the tutelage of Rick Peterson. Don’t be surprised if this guy ends up starting the All-Star Game.
Streamers
Jair Jurrjens – Should be owned in deep leagues (14+ teams) but for most people he’ll be a great streamer this season.
Keep an Eye On:
Gio Gonzalez – He will be a solid mid-season add to fantasy rosters and be a big boost to your strikeouts.
Josh Fields – If you have room to stash this guy he’ll eventually help you with plus power numbers. Crede will be dealt or hurt by the All-Star break.
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If you have any questions or comments I’d love to hear from you. If you have any ideas or topics you’d like me to discuss in a future COC leave them here as well. Good luck on your 2008 fantasy baseball adventure don't forget to come back next week!
Spend some time within the first month of the season on your pitching depth. Forget about how solid or shaky your top two starters are and ask yourself how good your pitching staff is 3-5. Among these three pitchers should be one player that is a good bet to produce numbers in line with a #2 caliber SP aka a breakout candidate. Next, make sure you have an unexciting yet durable guy who is a good bet for 30 starts. Finally the third piece of the trio should be a high strikeout guy you won’t want to start each week.
Now if you plan on streaming pitchers all season or spent a premium on pitching in your draft or auction this basic strategy does not translate as well. But the majority of fantasy owners can use these guidelines as a way to measure their pitching depth across the league. For those owners who feel they must wait until June before considering trades, keep in mind the stats your earn in April and May count and waiting around accumulating stats from a less than ideal staff can hamper your hopes of bringing home a fantasy championship.
Sellers Market
George Sherrill – Don’t dump him for anyone but a lack of experience, small ballpark and four quality lineups within the division don’t bode well for a big year even if he retains the closer job all season.
Juan Pierre – He’ll be a headache to own and his PT will drop by the week. Pawn him off on a speed-starved club.
Javier Vazquez – His current value as a low-end #2 SP puts too much stock in his solid ‘07 campaign. Expect him to deliver numbers more in line with a low-end #3 or decent #4 SP.
Dan Uggla – Pitchers simply won’t give him as much to hit this season and he’ll end up pressing. Sell him now before his average tanks and he becomes too much of a burden to carry as a starting two-bagger.
Buyers Market
Edison Volquez – At his current price (most likely free on your waiver wire) he makes for a better #4 or #5 starter than other brand names.
Rickie Weeks – If your team is low on risk, Weeks makes for a solid gamble. Only injuries will prevent him from having a solid season.
Adam LaRoche – Great depth and CI player who will see his stock rise this season. Coming off a bad year and a usually slow starter, you won’t have to break the bank to get him.
Pat Burrell – For the price, he is a solid #3 OF or UTIL player that can deliver great power numbers.
Oliver Perez – No I’m not just plugging him in after his solid outing last night. This guy has improved his control under the tutelage of Rick Peterson. Don’t be surprised if this guy ends up starting the All-Star Game.
Streamers
Jair Jurrjens – Should be owned in deep leagues (14+ teams) but for most people he’ll be a great streamer this season.
Keep an Eye On:
Gio Gonzalez – He will be a solid mid-season add to fantasy rosters and be a big boost to your strikeouts.
Josh Fields – If you have room to stash this guy he’ll eventually help you with plus power numbers. Crede will be dealt or hurt by the All-Star break.
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If you have any questions or comments I’d love to hear from you. If you have any ideas or topics you’d like me to discuss in a future COC leave them here as well. Good luck on your 2008 fantasy baseball adventure don't forget to come back next week!
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Chuggin' Along: The Olympics, NHL and NBA
Since last fall, I have felt the upcoming Olympics in China were going to be a disaster and nothing has happened to change my opinion. Perhaps I am not getting the full story or slanted reports on how things are going in the Far East but I’m not hearing a whole lot of positives. The Olympic torch has made its way to Kazakhstan. Unfortunately, the major theme seemed more to do with protecting the precious flame than how wonderful it is to have the games coming to China. I just get the feeling China is trying to get through these games without a major catastrophe rather than using it as a platform to enhance and promote the Chinese people and culture.
The presence of Lord Stanley is drawing near as the NHL heads into the final stretch of its regular season. Hockey has taken its lumps as a sport overall, but the rule changes and frugal fiscal policies implemented over the past two years have gone a long way toward setting a solid foundation for the sport. There is room for improvement but the best thing the NHL has going for it is its playoffs. If you love hockey you already know, but if you don’t watch NHL hockey, I urge you to carve out a little time to take in the playoffs. If you are busy, set up the DVR or TiVo, you will be glad that you did. They don’t take three days off between games, they don’t play a measly best-of-five series in the first round and they don’t shake hands until someone goes home. You don’t have to be a hockey fan to enjoy it, but you just might take a step toward being one if you give it a chance.
As far as the NBA goes, it’s not something I love to watch. I enjoy playing basketball, I love college basketball, but I’m not a fan of the NBA. Any shred of interest I did have in the NBA went away when I saw teams signing and trading retired players. That is not creative, that is a joke. In the NBA a player’s value has more to do with his contract (or lack of one) than his talent or off-the-court demeanor. Sorry, just not for me. But the playoffs are approaching and soon NBA basketball will be dominating the headlines and sports talk radio. I’ll end up watching a game or three like usual because I love sports, but I’ll come away from it exactly the same way I did last year and the year before; wondering why the NBA playoffs take so damn long. This season, the playoffs begin on April 20 and the Finals start on June 5. It takes a month and a half to whittle it down to two teams? If any league needs to vote on its playoff structure it is the NBA, not the NFL.
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I have decided to make Chuggin’ Along a weekly posting. It will be a quick overview of sports related topics getting less attention here at the Depot. For now, I’m making it Wednesday’s post. Feel free to leave any questions, comments or ideas and thanks for stopping by the Sports Depot!
The presence of Lord Stanley is drawing near as the NHL heads into the final stretch of its regular season. Hockey has taken its lumps as a sport overall, but the rule changes and frugal fiscal policies implemented over the past two years have gone a long way toward setting a solid foundation for the sport. There is room for improvement but the best thing the NHL has going for it is its playoffs. If you love hockey you already know, but if you don’t watch NHL hockey, I urge you to carve out a little time to take in the playoffs. If you are busy, set up the DVR or TiVo, you will be glad that you did. They don’t take three days off between games, they don’t play a measly best-of-five series in the first round and they don’t shake hands until someone goes home. You don’t have to be a hockey fan to enjoy it, but you just might take a step toward being one if you give it a chance.
As far as the NBA goes, it’s not something I love to watch. I enjoy playing basketball, I love college basketball, but I’m not a fan of the NBA. Any shred of interest I did have in the NBA went away when I saw teams signing and trading retired players. That is not creative, that is a joke. In the NBA a player’s value has more to do with his contract (or lack of one) than his talent or off-the-court demeanor. Sorry, just not for me. But the playoffs are approaching and soon NBA basketball will be dominating the headlines and sports talk radio. I’ll end up watching a game or three like usual because I love sports, but I’ll come away from it exactly the same way I did last year and the year before; wondering why the NBA playoffs take so damn long. This season, the playoffs begin on April 20 and the Finals start on June 5. It takes a month and a half to whittle it down to two teams? If any league needs to vote on its playoff structure it is the NBA, not the NFL.
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I have decided to make Chuggin’ Along a weekly posting. It will be a quick overview of sports related topics getting less attention here at the Depot. For now, I’m making it Wednesday’s post. Feel free to leave any questions, comments or ideas and thanks for stopping by the Sports Depot!
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
March Sadness
For the first time ever, each of the four top seeds advanced to the Final Four. And people are hailing the Selection Committee? Are you kidding me? If you followed college basketball this season and looked at the Committee’s bracket you are not surprised at this season’s Final Four participants.
Let’s start with the two easy regions. Who had a legitimate shot at knocking off North Carolina or UCLA? At best, there were one or two teams that could have played the top seed tough in the Elite 8. However, playing them tough and winning are two different things, especially considering the advantage of playing close to home.
As for the Midwest, Georgetown and Wisconsin could have hung with Kansas. Obviously Davidson was up to the task as well. In the end, Kansas’ road to the Final Four went through an 8 seed, a 12 seed and a 10 seed. If the Selection Committee really “got it right” then this wouldn’t have happened.
Then there was the South. No matter how much I looked at this region all I saw was chalk. And with the exception of a 5-seed (Michigan State) beating a 4-seed (Pittsburgh) there wasn’t any upsets here. In my opinion, this region offered the most Final Four caliber teams. Consequently, it also offered little excitement for my bracket and yet another #1 seed headed to San Antonio.
So now we are left with the top four seeded teams. You won’t hear people twenty years from now talking about how (insert Cinderella team name here) made a magical run into the National Championship game against (insert BCS school name here) and (insert name of future NBA lottery pick and Hall-of-Famer here). There are plenty of people who won’t agree with me, but this is going to be a sad ending to an otherwise great college basketball season.
One last rant.
Does anyone else have an issue with the All-American team being loaded with freshmen? When did the NCAA start passing its All-American moniker to those players who embolden capitalism by going pro after hanging out in college for a year to simply get old enough for the NBA? This All-American list is a disgrace to every REAL student-athlete and every year becomes less and less meaningful.
Let’s start with the two easy regions. Who had a legitimate shot at knocking off North Carolina or UCLA? At best, there were one or two teams that could have played the top seed tough in the Elite 8. However, playing them tough and winning are two different things, especially considering the advantage of playing close to home.
As for the Midwest, Georgetown and Wisconsin could have hung with Kansas. Obviously Davidson was up to the task as well. In the end, Kansas’ road to the Final Four went through an 8 seed, a 12 seed and a 10 seed. If the Selection Committee really “got it right” then this wouldn’t have happened.
Then there was the South. No matter how much I looked at this region all I saw was chalk. And with the exception of a 5-seed (Michigan State) beating a 4-seed (Pittsburgh) there wasn’t any upsets here. In my opinion, this region offered the most Final Four caliber teams. Consequently, it also offered little excitement for my bracket and yet another #1 seed headed to San Antonio.
So now we are left with the top four seeded teams. You won’t hear people twenty years from now talking about how (insert Cinderella team name here) made a magical run into the National Championship game against (insert BCS school name here) and (insert name of future NBA lottery pick and Hall-of-Famer here). There are plenty of people who won’t agree with me, but this is going to be a sad ending to an otherwise great college basketball season.
One last rant.
Does anyone else have an issue with the All-American team being loaded with freshmen? When did the NCAA start passing its All-American moniker to those players who embolden capitalism by going pro after hanging out in college for a year to simply get old enough for the NBA? This All-American list is a disgrace to every REAL student-athlete and every year becomes less and less meaningful.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Can of Corn: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall
Stats are starting to count in your fantasy leagues. Logging in to check scores and see the latest news and transactions by your league-mates will become habitual from this point forward. But the most common theme amongst fantasy baseball owners right now is a self-evaluation of how well you constructed your championship team. So this week’s Can of Corn is going to cover seven general principles you should keep in mind when scanning over your team at the start of a fantasy season.
1. You Are Biased! If you breathe and eat food to survive then you have natural biases. Biases come in many forms, players from your favorite team, your favorite sleepers, players that have treated you well in past seasons, etc. Having biases isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but you need to know you have them and where they show up on your roster so you can evaluate your team objectively. I love Corey Hart this season but he has never played more than 140 games in a season. Chances are, your roster is full of players you feel will perform considerably well. Be realistic when evaluating your team’s strengths and weaknesses. I know what Hart is capable of doing, but that doesn’t mean he won’t regress a little bit this season as pitches adjust to him (see Atkins, Garrett).
2. Career Years. I tend to avoid players who seemingly had career years the season prior because they often come with inflated prices. If you have players that performed extremely well last season they may lose value very quickly. As a result, these are logical players to consider trading early. Jimmy Rollins, Eric Brynes and Orlando Cabrera are three players that come to mind. All should be productive this season, but it is very possible they won’t have greater value at any point during this season as they do right now.
3. Identifying and Managing Strengths and Weaknesses. This symbiotic relationship is always changing. You need to be able to identify your weaknesses before you can manage them and you cannot manage your weaknesses without knowing your strengths (and visa verse). If you play in a H2H league you need to understand your comparative strength to your weekly opponent. In roto leagues you need to cash in on your statistical advantages strategically to obtain the most beneficial gains for your team. The type of league you are in matters. In a H2H league, you can have the most total home runs, but only win the category half the time. The same situation in a roto league would award you all the points for that category. In other words, the same exact team could have different strengths and weaknesses based on your league’s format. Also, keep in mind that when battling for your league’s title it is just as helpful to increase your main competition’s chances of losing as it is of your chances of winning.
4. Other Expert Advice. It’s one of the first things people do after they have their team picked-see what the supposed experts have to say about the players on your freshly minted team. This is helpful, but keep in mind the experts are not looking at your full roster of players. Unless you play in a cookie-cutter standard league, your league’s scoring and settings dictate the true value of each player in your league.
5. Balance and Depth. You want to build a team full of cub scouts. If you played fantasy football last season you will have a better understanding of the value in depth and balance. Injuries happen and no combination of a locker, snake or bottle of rum is going to keep your players healthy. So all you can do is be prepared.
6. Don’t Get Desperate Too Soon. If your team’s only shortstop is Felipe Lopez right now you don’t have to panic. Seriously, the next Chris Shelton is only days away from arriving and he might just play shortstop. I’m not saying you shouldn’t be worried, because you should be very worried. If the right deal comes along and makes sense don’t hesitate because you need to improve at the position. But before you overspend for the likes of an Orlando Cabrera, see if Asdrubal Cabrera is available. A hot start might be all it takes for him to move to the second spot in Cleveland’s lineup.
7. Risk Assessment. Risk is like debt, it’s nice to have some but too much can make your day-to-day life very stressful. Look over your team and figure out how much risk you have. Then determine whether or not you need to adjust your roster. If you feel you have too much risk and own Rich Harden, consider shopping him around if he makes another solid start. You never want to gamble with too much risk, especially if you took risk with one of your top four players.
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If you have any questions or comments I’d love to hear from you. If you have any ideas or topics you’d like me to discuss in a future COC leave them here as well. Good luck on your 2008 fantasy baseball adventure don't forget to come back next week!
1. You Are Biased! If you breathe and eat food to survive then you have natural biases. Biases come in many forms, players from your favorite team, your favorite sleepers, players that have treated you well in past seasons, etc. Having biases isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but you need to know you have them and where they show up on your roster so you can evaluate your team objectively. I love Corey Hart this season but he has never played more than 140 games in a season. Chances are, your roster is full of players you feel will perform considerably well. Be realistic when evaluating your team’s strengths and weaknesses. I know what Hart is capable of doing, but that doesn’t mean he won’t regress a little bit this season as pitches adjust to him (see Atkins, Garrett).
2. Career Years. I tend to avoid players who seemingly had career years the season prior because they often come with inflated prices. If you have players that performed extremely well last season they may lose value very quickly. As a result, these are logical players to consider trading early. Jimmy Rollins, Eric Brynes and Orlando Cabrera are three players that come to mind. All should be productive this season, but it is very possible they won’t have greater value at any point during this season as they do right now.
3. Identifying and Managing Strengths and Weaknesses. This symbiotic relationship is always changing. You need to be able to identify your weaknesses before you can manage them and you cannot manage your weaknesses without knowing your strengths (and visa verse). If you play in a H2H league you need to understand your comparative strength to your weekly opponent. In roto leagues you need to cash in on your statistical advantages strategically to obtain the most beneficial gains for your team. The type of league you are in matters. In a H2H league, you can have the most total home runs, but only win the category half the time. The same situation in a roto league would award you all the points for that category. In other words, the same exact team could have different strengths and weaknesses based on your league’s format. Also, keep in mind that when battling for your league’s title it is just as helpful to increase your main competition’s chances of losing as it is of your chances of winning.
4. Other Expert Advice. It’s one of the first things people do after they have their team picked-see what the supposed experts have to say about the players on your freshly minted team. This is helpful, but keep in mind the experts are not looking at your full roster of players. Unless you play in a cookie-cutter standard league, your league’s scoring and settings dictate the true value of each player in your league.
5. Balance and Depth. You want to build a team full of cub scouts. If you played fantasy football last season you will have a better understanding of the value in depth and balance. Injuries happen and no combination of a locker, snake or bottle of rum is going to keep your players healthy. So all you can do is be prepared.
6. Don’t Get Desperate Too Soon. If your team’s only shortstop is Felipe Lopez right now you don’t have to panic. Seriously, the next Chris Shelton is only days away from arriving and he might just play shortstop. I’m not saying you shouldn’t be worried, because you should be very worried. If the right deal comes along and makes sense don’t hesitate because you need to improve at the position. But before you overspend for the likes of an Orlando Cabrera, see if Asdrubal Cabrera is available. A hot start might be all it takes for him to move to the second spot in Cleveland’s lineup.
7. Risk Assessment. Risk is like debt, it’s nice to have some but too much can make your day-to-day life very stressful. Look over your team and figure out how much risk you have. Then determine whether or not you need to adjust your roster. If you feel you have too much risk and own Rich Harden, consider shopping him around if he makes another solid start. You never want to gamble with too much risk, especially if you took risk with one of your top four players.
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If you have any questions or comments I’d love to hear from you. If you have any ideas or topics you’d like me to discuss in a future COC leave them here as well. Good luck on your 2008 fantasy baseball adventure don't forget to come back next week!
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
NFL Offseason Chuggin' Along
Baseball has started and NCAA hoops is in full swing but I felt I needed a dose of NFL football so the Train is chuggin' along the grid-iron today.
1. For the record, I don't have long hair. I'm lucky if my hair doesn't recede an inch let alone grow an inch but length of hair isn't going to help in the NFL's image department. Not getting busted by the police is what helps your image. Doing quality foundation and charity work is what helps your image. Is the NFL concerned with its image or how many of its players are included in Sexiest Man lists?
2. Bruce to wear 80 as 49ers reload the Martz double barrel, high action assault rifle. Jerry, c'mon here. I'm all for being nice but you are THE man and that 80 is yours. Upgrading the WR position helps, but do they have the right guy throwing the ball? Will Martz use Gore as a workhorse or just lean on him for 15 carries a game?
3. Shaun Alexander must have ate his contract because he is slow and unexciting with the football in his hands. Hard to imagine such a steep decline. However, Seattle's choice to infuse Julius Jones and Duckett puts more pressure on Matt Hasselbeck and the defense. I'll be targeting Hasselbeck in many future fantasy drafts/auctions.
4. Whether you agree with the punishment or not, there is no excuse for losing a draft pick because of tampering. Bill Walsh is turning in his grave right now. What happened to such a class organization? And how good do the Bears look right now? Briggs threatens them and in the end he signs a reasonable contract and gets them a better draft pick.
5. Don't overlook the impact of DeAngelo Hall going to Oaktown. Hall and Asomugha will form as solid a pair of cornerbacks as there are in the league. With the addition of Javon Walker, it sure looks like Oakland is molding itself to be a "hope we can score more than you do" type of team. Oakland deserves to be bashed on several matters over the past few seasons, but not with this move. They had to improve against the pass and deserve credit in making strides to do so.
6. Seriously, I know he loves having a lot of QBs but how in the world does any NFL team allow Jon Gruden to collect them the way he does? I'm starting to wonder if Chucky has thousands of bobbleheads locked in his basement-all of them quarterbacks.
7. Chad Johnson. The NFL is worried about long hair when they have players throwing punches at coaches? Then they bring more attention to his rebel nature by having the cameras follow him to the sideline.
8. I know the economy is sagging right now and the value of the dollar is weak but the Jets are not helping the situation. Anyone else feel there is a correlation to the Jets' spending and interest rate cuts? When did Laverneous Coles become an All-World receiver? Other players play out their deals and get paid in free agency, he starts crying because the deal he signed is too small and what are the Jets going to do? They are going to go out and get some more diapers and hope they can contain the mess better.
9. Michael Turner's signing in Atlanta reminds of Shawshank Redemption. The guy didn't do anything wrong and spent years wasting away as a result. He has escaped LT's shadow and can now make the most out of what's left of his NFL career.
10. Move over AFC South. Cleveland's uprising has made the AFC North a division of power in the NFL. Last season these two divisions tied for most home wins within the division, shedding light on what has become a very tough division. I don't think you will be seeing both AFC Wild Card teams from the South in 2008.
As the NFL Draft approaches I will try to mix in some grid-iron posts amidst the baseball and basketball fodder. Thanks for stopping by, your comments and questions are always welcomed.
1. For the record, I don't have long hair. I'm lucky if my hair doesn't recede an inch let alone grow an inch but length of hair isn't going to help in the NFL's image department. Not getting busted by the police is what helps your image. Doing quality foundation and charity work is what helps your image. Is the NFL concerned with its image or how many of its players are included in Sexiest Man lists?
2. Bruce to wear 80 as 49ers reload the Martz double barrel, high action assault rifle. Jerry, c'mon here. I'm all for being nice but you are THE man and that 80 is yours. Upgrading the WR position helps, but do they have the right guy throwing the ball? Will Martz use Gore as a workhorse or just lean on him for 15 carries a game?
3. Shaun Alexander must have ate his contract because he is slow and unexciting with the football in his hands. Hard to imagine such a steep decline. However, Seattle's choice to infuse Julius Jones and Duckett puts more pressure on Matt Hasselbeck and the defense. I'll be targeting Hasselbeck in many future fantasy drafts/auctions.
4. Whether you agree with the punishment or not, there is no excuse for losing a draft pick because of tampering. Bill Walsh is turning in his grave right now. What happened to such a class organization? And how good do the Bears look right now? Briggs threatens them and in the end he signs a reasonable contract and gets them a better draft pick.
5. Don't overlook the impact of DeAngelo Hall going to Oaktown. Hall and Asomugha will form as solid a pair of cornerbacks as there are in the league. With the addition of Javon Walker, it sure looks like Oakland is molding itself to be a "hope we can score more than you do" type of team. Oakland deserves to be bashed on several matters over the past few seasons, but not with this move. They had to improve against the pass and deserve credit in making strides to do so.
6. Seriously, I know he loves having a lot of QBs but how in the world does any NFL team allow Jon Gruden to collect them the way he does? I'm starting to wonder if Chucky has thousands of bobbleheads locked in his basement-all of them quarterbacks.
7. Chad Johnson. The NFL is worried about long hair when they have players throwing punches at coaches? Then they bring more attention to his rebel nature by having the cameras follow him to the sideline.
8. I know the economy is sagging right now and the value of the dollar is weak but the Jets are not helping the situation. Anyone else feel there is a correlation to the Jets' spending and interest rate cuts? When did Laverneous Coles become an All-World receiver? Other players play out their deals and get paid in free agency, he starts crying because the deal he signed is too small and what are the Jets going to do? They are going to go out and get some more diapers and hope they can contain the mess better.
9. Michael Turner's signing in Atlanta reminds of Shawshank Redemption. The guy didn't do anything wrong and spent years wasting away as a result. He has escaped LT's shadow and can now make the most out of what's left of his NFL career.
10. Move over AFC South. Cleveland's uprising has made the AFC North a division of power in the NFL. Last season these two divisions tied for most home wins within the division, shedding light on what has become a very tough division. I don't think you will be seeing both AFC Wild Card teams from the South in 2008.
As the NFL Draft approaches I will try to mix in some grid-iron posts amidst the baseball and basketball fodder. Thanks for stopping by, your comments and questions are always welcomed.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Batter Up!
JD Drew is hurt and rumors of gyro-balls being thrown by Dice-K are in the air so that can only mean one thing. Yep, the 2008 baseball season has officially started. Grab your crackerjacks and get your glove out because it's gonna be a crazy trip to the Fall Classic.
The season begins in the land of the rising sun with Oakland and Boston carrying the torch as baseball players and ambassadors. I'll take in the games but I am looking at two things out of these teams to get a initial impression on their chances of winning it all in 2008.
First off, I am going to be watching Rich Harden. He has the stuff, but does he have the health? Tomorrow will be his first step toward a healthy season. A healthy Harden will keep the As from becoming a AAAA team but should he go down, the A's will become the land of the rising prospects. Additionally, a pitching staff without an ace will destroy a bullpen.
Secondly, I am looking to see the Red Sox play as a 'team.' They are all excited and proud of their camaraderie when they threatened a boycott, but does it translate onto the field? If today's game is an early indication I'd say yes. They found a way to come back late in the game and pull out the victory. The difference between great teams playing in the post-season and winning in the post-season is confidence and effort. Wins like this one for Boston go a long way of helping a team's confidence and effort in the post-season. Even if they are the defending World Champions. Even in March.
Fantasy Nugget
For those of you who play in fantasy leagues, take note of the Oakland bullpen. Street is in no danger of losing his spot as the team's closer as long as he remains healthy. However, Foulke was used after Embree in today's game. Embree, Foulke and former-Brave Joey Devine are the three most likely candidates to take over as the closer if Street is dealt or hurt in the near future. Embree did fine in the role last season but fits better as a setup guy. Foulke has more experience and could be very effective in the role. Devine is probably the team's closer of the future. I'd expect to see Devine sometime in August with Foulke given the first shot to close if Street leaves Oaktown.
The season begins in the land of the rising sun with Oakland and Boston carrying the torch as baseball players and ambassadors. I'll take in the games but I am looking at two things out of these teams to get a initial impression on their chances of winning it all in 2008.
First off, I am going to be watching Rich Harden. He has the stuff, but does he have the health? Tomorrow will be his first step toward a healthy season. A healthy Harden will keep the As from becoming a AAAA team but should he go down, the A's will become the land of the rising prospects. Additionally, a pitching staff without an ace will destroy a bullpen.
Secondly, I am looking to see the Red Sox play as a 'team.' They are all excited and proud of their camaraderie when they threatened a boycott, but does it translate onto the field? If today's game is an early indication I'd say yes. They found a way to come back late in the game and pull out the victory. The difference between great teams playing in the post-season and winning in the post-season is confidence and effort. Wins like this one for Boston go a long way of helping a team's confidence and effort in the post-season. Even if they are the defending World Champions. Even in March.
Fantasy Nugget
For those of you who play in fantasy leagues, take note of the Oakland bullpen. Street is in no danger of losing his spot as the team's closer as long as he remains healthy. However, Foulke was used after Embree in today's game. Embree, Foulke and former-Brave Joey Devine are the three most likely candidates to take over as the closer if Street is dealt or hurt in the near future. Embree did fine in the role last season but fits better as a setup guy. Foulke has more experience and could be very effective in the role. Devine is probably the team's closer of the future. I'd expect to see Devine sometime in August with Foulke given the first shot to close if Street leaves Oaktown.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Can of Corn: Do Not Draft Do's and Dont's
Do you use the Do Not Draft feature? You should. It will help reduce potential mistakes in your draft. However, there are times when people make the mistake of putting certain players on the Do Not Draft list when they are more of a “probably should not draft” list. It’s not a horrible blunder, but it could be costly. How many people had Bonds on their DND list last pre-season? He turned out to be a pretty useful player and at a great value because so many people were intent on ignoring him in their drafts.
I have done this myself, more than once. Sometimes it is just a player I figure will be taken too early for my liking so I put him in the DND list so I can focus on what I perceive to be more realistic options at a better value. It usually works out fine, but what if that player falls? You probably would not even realize it if he was on your DND list. Just because you believe a player is being over-hyped or going too early for your liking does not mean you should cast him off to your DND list. You might just find that player falls far enough that you actually feel he is worth taking.
So who DOES belong on your DND list? Well, that’s up to you but there are a few things you should consider before making the decision.
History. More than any other reason, players who have a history of not living up to expectations or missing significant time with serious injuries are not players you want to own. If you’ve been playing fantasy baseball for more than two years and knowledgeable of baseball this isn’t rocket science. Depending on your strategy though, you can choose to dig further and look at a player’s historical split stats. I have seen veteran owners throw out players who traditionally start slowly and have success. They then try to sell high and target second half players.
Off-field Issues. This could be a personal preference or it could be avoiding players that are likely to miss games due to off the field issues. This season, potential and imposed PED suspensions are a good enough reason to avoid some players. If you don’t want to avoid these players altogether, you could just push them down in your rankings.
Playing time. Hard to be productive if you are not playing. Get rid of any player that YOU KNOW are not guaranteed a lot of playing time but do not include players that may have an impact early in the season. If you are unsure, then leave the player in your rankings.
Weighing upside. There are a select few players that meet all of the above requirements but should not be completely ignored because of their tremendous upside. These players are worth considering if there is very little investment required to get them. Francisco Liriano and Rich Harden are two players who fit this mold. It is not unusual to see one of these two completely ignored as many owners will include them on their DND list. As a result they can be had at a very minimal cost. In these situations ONLY it is perfectly acceptable to gamble on a player even though they meet each of the previous criterion.
Using your Do Not Draft List wisely can be advantageous to your draft. Abusing the list and turning it into a compilation of players you dislike for whatever reason is not always the best way to prepare for your draft or auction.
I have done this myself, more than once. Sometimes it is just a player I figure will be taken too early for my liking so I put him in the DND list so I can focus on what I perceive to be more realistic options at a better value. It usually works out fine, but what if that player falls? You probably would not even realize it if he was on your DND list. Just because you believe a player is being over-hyped or going too early for your liking does not mean you should cast him off to your DND list. You might just find that player falls far enough that you actually feel he is worth taking.
So who DOES belong on your DND list? Well, that’s up to you but there are a few things you should consider before making the decision.
History. More than any other reason, players who have a history of not living up to expectations or missing significant time with serious injuries are not players you want to own. If you’ve been playing fantasy baseball for more than two years and knowledgeable of baseball this isn’t rocket science. Depending on your strategy though, you can choose to dig further and look at a player’s historical split stats. I have seen veteran owners throw out players who traditionally start slowly and have success. They then try to sell high and target second half players.
Off-field Issues. This could be a personal preference or it could be avoiding players that are likely to miss games due to off the field issues. This season, potential and imposed PED suspensions are a good enough reason to avoid some players. If you don’t want to avoid these players altogether, you could just push them down in your rankings.
Playing time. Hard to be productive if you are not playing. Get rid of any player that YOU KNOW are not guaranteed a lot of playing time but do not include players that may have an impact early in the season. If you are unsure, then leave the player in your rankings.
Weighing upside. There are a select few players that meet all of the above requirements but should not be completely ignored because of their tremendous upside. These players are worth considering if there is very little investment required to get them. Francisco Liriano and Rich Harden are two players who fit this mold. It is not unusual to see one of these two completely ignored as many owners will include them on their DND list. As a result they can be had at a very minimal cost. In these situations ONLY it is perfectly acceptable to gamble on a player even though they meet each of the previous criterion.
Using your Do Not Draft List wisely can be advantageous to your draft. Abusing the list and turning it into a compilation of players you dislike for whatever reason is not always the best way to prepare for your draft or auction.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Bracket Time: Anyone Have A Respirator?
It's time to fill out your brackets. How many does it take to formulate your #1 official bracket? It all depends on how you make those selections but if you are like me you go into it looking for the upset specials. Which is exactly why I am a little bummed this year. The Committee's choice to pair many of the mid-majors against each other early has taken some of the spice out of this year's bracket. Instead, I find myself reaching for the respirator as I choke on the all the chalk dust in the air. Here are my brief outlooks on each region.
EAST-UNC, Tenn, Louis, Wash St.
Overview: Hard to go against the chalk in this region. Top seeds will not have an easy game in the second round barring an upset. St. Joe's could rock the boat against Oklahoma but I'm seeing chalk everywhere I look here.
Sleeper: Notre Dame. This team is fundamentally sound. They will play their game and wait for you to make mistakes. On a neutral floor, the Irish could upset UNC.
My pick: North Carolina. What impresses me most about them this season is that they found a way to win a few close games. They have the mental toughness to go along with their talent and coaching.
MIDWEST-Kansas, G'town, WI, Vandy
Overview: When I look at this region I have to ask myself how good is Vanderbilt? Clemson is more than capable and Villanova has enough talent. I see three teams that could beat Kansas in the Sweet 16. Mayo and Beasley will be fun to watch but neither team is a big threat to Wisconsin. Davidson could take Gonzaga but the Hoya's are a sweet 16 lock. Do yourself a favor and go with Georgetown or Wisconsin.
Sleeper: Villanova. I like Clemson but they are too inconsistent. 'Nova isn't a Final Four team but should they find a way to win their first two games they'll be confident in their chances of taking down the Jayhawks.
My pick: Wisconsin. They play a style of basketball that is perfect for the NCAA tourney and this might be one of their best all around teams in a long time. I like them more than Georgetown because they can match up against anyone and are solid defensively.
SOUTH-Memphis, Texas, Stanford, Pitt
Overview: This is the toughest region in my opinion. Texas is battle-tested and their freshman point guard isn't playing like a freshman. Stanford will be a tough out as long as they play their game. Pittsburgh has to be the #1 team nobody wants to play right now and Memphis is a man among boys more often than not when they take the court. I like the chalk into the Sweet 16. After that go with the team you like the most.
Sleeper: Miami. I'm not sure they will even get by St. Mary's but they are not going to phased by playing a two-seeded Texas team should they get the chance. Texas might just overlook them and find themselves in a dogfight to make the Sweet 16.
My pick: Memphis. They were my pre-season pick to win it all and I'm going to stick with them despite what figures to be a tough road to hoe to get there. Of all my picks, I am most worried about this one.
WEST-UCLA, Duke, Xavier, UConn
Overview: UCLA finds itself with a nice draw (not that they needed one). UConn better hope Western Kentucky can upset Drake because their inability to defend the perimeter will be hazardous to their tourney life. The bottom of this region features many teams I like in Baylor, Xavier, Purdue and West Virginia. Unfortunately, they all got lumped into the same bracket.
Sleeper: Baylor. They have the firepower to stay in any game and they have nothing to lose. I expect Purdue to win and would expect Xavier to beat them if they got by the Boilermakers. However, they are a dangerous team that is very capable of a Sweet 16 run.
My pick: UCLA. Just like the Midwestern bracket, I'm playing it safe. There are four teams in the bottom half of this bracket I wouldn't be surprised to see make the Elite 8 where UCLA will face its first truly tough match up of the tournament.
Cinderella pick: Of all my sleeper picks I think Villanova has the best shot at wearing the slipper into the Elite 8.
If there ever was a year to do more than one bracket, it's 2008. I'm not expecting too many upsets in the opening round but most of the games played after Friday are destined to be exciting. I'm ready for some March Madness, how about you?
EAST-UNC, Tenn, Louis, Wash St.
Overview: Hard to go against the chalk in this region. Top seeds will not have an easy game in the second round barring an upset. St. Joe's could rock the boat against Oklahoma but I'm seeing chalk everywhere I look here.
Sleeper: Notre Dame. This team is fundamentally sound. They will play their game and wait for you to make mistakes. On a neutral floor, the Irish could upset UNC.
My pick: North Carolina. What impresses me most about them this season is that they found a way to win a few close games. They have the mental toughness to go along with their talent and coaching.
MIDWEST-Kansas, G'town, WI, Vandy
Overview: When I look at this region I have to ask myself how good is Vanderbilt? Clemson is more than capable and Villanova has enough talent. I see three teams that could beat Kansas in the Sweet 16. Mayo and Beasley will be fun to watch but neither team is a big threat to Wisconsin. Davidson could take Gonzaga but the Hoya's are a sweet 16 lock. Do yourself a favor and go with Georgetown or Wisconsin.
Sleeper: Villanova. I like Clemson but they are too inconsistent. 'Nova isn't a Final Four team but should they find a way to win their first two games they'll be confident in their chances of taking down the Jayhawks.
My pick: Wisconsin. They play a style of basketball that is perfect for the NCAA tourney and this might be one of their best all around teams in a long time. I like them more than Georgetown because they can match up against anyone and are solid defensively.
SOUTH-Memphis, Texas, Stanford, Pitt
Overview: This is the toughest region in my opinion. Texas is battle-tested and their freshman point guard isn't playing like a freshman. Stanford will be a tough out as long as they play their game. Pittsburgh has to be the #1 team nobody wants to play right now and Memphis is a man among boys more often than not when they take the court. I like the chalk into the Sweet 16. After that go with the team you like the most.
Sleeper: Miami. I'm not sure they will even get by St. Mary's but they are not going to phased by playing a two-seeded Texas team should they get the chance. Texas might just overlook them and find themselves in a dogfight to make the Sweet 16.
My pick: Memphis. They were my pre-season pick to win it all and I'm going to stick with them despite what figures to be a tough road to hoe to get there. Of all my picks, I am most worried about this one.
WEST-UCLA, Duke, Xavier, UConn
Overview: UCLA finds itself with a nice draw (not that they needed one). UConn better hope Western Kentucky can upset Drake because their inability to defend the perimeter will be hazardous to their tourney life. The bottom of this region features many teams I like in Baylor, Xavier, Purdue and West Virginia. Unfortunately, they all got lumped into the same bracket.
Sleeper: Baylor. They have the firepower to stay in any game and they have nothing to lose. I expect Purdue to win and would expect Xavier to beat them if they got by the Boilermakers. However, they are a dangerous team that is very capable of a Sweet 16 run.
My pick: UCLA. Just like the Midwestern bracket, I'm playing it safe. There are four teams in the bottom half of this bracket I wouldn't be surprised to see make the Elite 8 where UCLA will face its first truly tough match up of the tournament.
Cinderella pick: Of all my sleeper picks I think Villanova has the best shot at wearing the slipper into the Elite 8.
If there ever was a year to do more than one bracket, it's 2008. I'm not expecting too many upsets in the opening round but most of the games played after Friday are destined to be exciting. I'm ready for some March Madness, how about you?
Monday, March 17, 2008
NIT Pickin'
I'll be brief with my "issues" of the NCAA bracket and then head into a quick look at the NIT.
I don't feel Tennessee was deserving of a #1 seed but to pair them with UNC seems harsh. Given the choice, I'd bet the Vols would rather be in a different region than playing in Charlotte during the opening rounds.
Next up is my biggest gripe: Butler being a 7 seed. Now I usually don't get into seeding all that much but this is blatant misrepresentation! Top 10 in the polls gets you a 7 seed. This what I like to call the MMS (Mid-Major Shaft). And to make matters worse, the Bulldogs get to play Southern Alabama in Birmingham. Aren't we supposed to reward teams that win their conference and then take care of business in their conference tourney? Didn't seem to hurt Kansas or Memphis, but because its the Horizon league it isn't worth as much. Yea, ok...riiight.
Overall, it looks like the mid majors hurt themselves the most by not getting it done in their conference championships. I'm glad Baylor got in and believe they will make a little run.
When it comes to the NIT you get a chance to show why you should have been in the big dance. However, you also get a chance to show why you don't belong in the dance as well. Dayton and ISU had similar snubs and appear to be headed for a head-to-head battle but the Redbirds could have the home court advantage if they can get by Utah St. A possible in state match up with Dayton and Ohio State is worth watching.
Virginia Tech is overrated, but Morgan State will have trouble coming off a huge loss to Copin State. They are more likely to have trouble in the second round. Mississippi should roll through this portion of the bracket.
Arizona State will be playing with a grudge but a potential show down with floor burn U won't be easy. Florida and Creighton are two young teams looking to gain some momentum heading into next season. These eight teams are wide open but Arizona State should battle through into the NIT Final four.
The last portion of the bracket has a lot of great potential match ups. With Maryland or Minnesota likely headed to the Carrier Dome and an Akron at UMass pairing a strong possibility there is a good chance you will see the type of game we all want to see: A good mid-major team versus an average major team.
My NIT Final Four is Dayton vs. Mississippi and Arizona State vs. Akron.
I don't feel Tennessee was deserving of a #1 seed but to pair them with UNC seems harsh. Given the choice, I'd bet the Vols would rather be in a different region than playing in Charlotte during the opening rounds.
Next up is my biggest gripe: Butler being a 7 seed. Now I usually don't get into seeding all that much but this is blatant misrepresentation! Top 10 in the polls gets you a 7 seed. This what I like to call the MMS (Mid-Major Shaft). And to make matters worse, the Bulldogs get to play Southern Alabama in Birmingham. Aren't we supposed to reward teams that win their conference and then take care of business in their conference tourney? Didn't seem to hurt Kansas or Memphis, but because its the Horizon league it isn't worth as much. Yea, ok...riiight.
Overall, it looks like the mid majors hurt themselves the most by not getting it done in their conference championships. I'm glad Baylor got in and believe they will make a little run.
When it comes to the NIT you get a chance to show why you should have been in the big dance. However, you also get a chance to show why you don't belong in the dance as well. Dayton and ISU had similar snubs and appear to be headed for a head-to-head battle but the Redbirds could have the home court advantage if they can get by Utah St. A possible in state match up with Dayton and Ohio State is worth watching.
Virginia Tech is overrated, but Morgan State will have trouble coming off a huge loss to Copin State. They are more likely to have trouble in the second round. Mississippi should roll through this portion of the bracket.
Arizona State will be playing with a grudge but a potential show down with floor burn U won't be easy. Florida and Creighton are two young teams looking to gain some momentum heading into next season. These eight teams are wide open but Arizona State should battle through into the NIT Final four.
The last portion of the bracket has a lot of great potential match ups. With Maryland or Minnesota likely headed to the Carrier Dome and an Akron at UMass pairing a strong possibility there is a good chance you will see the type of game we all want to see: A good mid-major team versus an average major team.
My NIT Final Four is Dayton vs. Mississippi and Arizona State vs. Akron.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Bears Sign 1-Year Deal With Mediocrity
Bad News Bears
Do I like what the Bears have done this off-season? No. The Bears look like they are gearing up for 2009 by letting their younger, and more costly, talent to leave the Windy City and inserting placeholders until more help arrives. The mere fact that Grossman and Orton are in an “open competition” while Green Bay boasts a better QB even after losing legendary QB Brett Favre to retirement is disheartening for Bears fans.
New Wheels
I guess the Bears felt that if their QB situation was iffy, they should not be spending too many resources on their receiving corps. They cashed in a used Buick for an old rusted out pick-up. Next, the “Repo-man” came in to claim the Bears’ low-mileage sporty coup after they stopped making payments. Then they went out and got themselves a thrifty used Pontiac that had some appeal when it first arrived but faded away before it ever really had much success. A stroll through the garage today will leave drivers and quarterbacks alike low on performance.
What Lies Ahead
I’m hoping the Bears pan for an offensive lineman in the first and the second round. The Bears need to be able to block for their below-average running back(s) and protect their below-average quarterback(s) so he can throw to their below-average receiver(s). If they fail to heavily invest along the offensive line they can expect to repeat last season’s 16.6 first down’s per game (27th in the NFL) and ensure themselves a top 15 draft pick in 2009.
The sad truth is that if they are wrong on the players taken in next month's NFL Entry Draft, they'll be watching the playoffs in '09 as well.
Do I like what the Bears have done this off-season? No. The Bears look like they are gearing up for 2009 by letting their younger, and more costly, talent to leave the Windy City and inserting placeholders until more help arrives. The mere fact that Grossman and Orton are in an “open competition” while Green Bay boasts a better QB even after losing legendary QB Brett Favre to retirement is disheartening for Bears fans.
New Wheels
I guess the Bears felt that if their QB situation was iffy, they should not be spending too many resources on their receiving corps. They cashed in a used Buick for an old rusted out pick-up. Next, the “Repo-man” came in to claim the Bears’ low-mileage sporty coup after they stopped making payments. Then they went out and got themselves a thrifty used Pontiac that had some appeal when it first arrived but faded away before it ever really had much success. A stroll through the garage today will leave drivers and quarterbacks alike low on performance.
What Lies Ahead
I’m hoping the Bears pan for an offensive lineman in the first and the second round. The Bears need to be able to block for their below-average running back(s) and protect their below-average quarterback(s) so he can throw to their below-average receiver(s). If they fail to heavily invest along the offensive line they can expect to repeat last season’s 16.6 first down’s per game (27th in the NFL) and ensure themselves a top 15 draft pick in 2009.
The sad truth is that if they are wrong on the players taken in next month's NFL Entry Draft, they'll be watching the playoffs in '09 as well.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Can Of Corn: Power/Speed Combos
With the baseball season a few weeks away I have decided to devote at least one blog entry per week to covering fantasy baseball. Thus, I bring you the creation of "Can of Corn." I am hoping to bring you COC each Thursday but give me a few weeks before the day is set for good.
Rummaging through message boards and other fantasy sites, it seems there is a lot of varying opinion on the crop of players that provide power and speed to your lineup. More specifically, which guys should you target and at what value? Here is an overview of 20 power/speed players heading into the 2008 season. I'm not including typical 1st rounders since they are well known commodities.
1. Carl Crawford - Crawford gets his own category because he is going outside the first round and really doesn't belong in any of the categories listed below. Depending on who you talk to you will see projections as low as 15/40 or as high as 25/60 for the Rays center fielder. I tend to lean toward 20/60 potential. He is one of the most consistent fantasy players you'll find, has shown a steady improvement over the last three seasons and is now entering his prime years. You won't find a better power/speed combo after the first round than Crawford.
30/30 Potential
2. Grady Sizemore (OF, CLE) - He leads off for a potent Cleveland lineup and has shown durability by playing in 162 games in each of the past two seasons. The increase in walks last season from 78 to 101 helped raise his OBP closer to .400. There is no reason to expect Sizemore can't deliver a 30/30 season to his owners in 2008.
3. BJ Upton (2B/OF, TB) - I give Upton the edge over Phillips because he has a higher ceiling with 30/40 potential. Many pundits will gripe about his BABIP being high and in turn are predicting a batting average closer to .270. What no one else is saying is that Upton consistently hits the ball hard and has a good eye. It isn't a surprise to me that his BABIP is high because when you hit the ball hard and can run like the wind, you'll get more hits than the average guy. Expect an average around .290 with developing power.
5. Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN) - Phillips finally lived up to the uber-prospect hype last season but can he repeat it? Not likely, but the potential of getting 30/30 out of your second baseman warrants a second round draft pick. Slotting into the cleanup spot with Dusty Baker's squad should make Phillips a safe bet for 25/25 with great RBI totals out of the middle infield for your fantasy team.
6. Corey Hart (OF, MIL) - Here is one guy that a lot of people, including myself, feel has legitimate 30/30 potential. I'm not fully convinced he will achieve the feat but if he doesn't do it he sure won't fall short by much. Consistently being picked after other power speed combos with a longer track record, Hart is a solid pick as early as the 5th round.
11. Chris Young (OF, ARI) - Young is an intriguing draft day choice, one that many fantasy owners will struggle with. Before drafting or bidding on Young take a look at the rest of your team. How many players do you have with a .300+ batting average? You'll need a few players to buoy your team's AVG if you select the young Diamondback.
25/25 Potential
4. Curtis Granderson (OF, DET) - Here is one guy that you need to take a good look at before drafting. I'm not just talking about his splits versus left-handed and right-handed pitching. I more concerned about his ability to improve on his 2007 totals. I do expect him to continue to improve, but I'm not sure it will translate into anything but more Runs. Granderson took a huge leap in 2007 but his doubles went up by 7 and his Hrs went up by 4. Detroit is a big ballpark and I just don't see him having the same increase in power this season. 25/30 is within reach but don't make the mistake of thinking this guy will become 30/30.
14. Rickie Weeks (2B, MIL) - Injuries have derailed this top prospect since he has joined the Brewers but make no mistake, the kid can hit the ball hard. If Weeks is fully healthy to open the season he could easily deliver 25/25 production as the lead off man in Milwaukee. His injury risk has kept his value down in drafts to the point where you can make him your top middle infielder off your bench.
20/20 Potential
7. Nick Markakis (OF, BAL) - He has 25/25 ability but this breakout player from a season ago won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. With little protection in the lineup and what should be better pitching throughout the AL East don't expect him to top 25 HRs this season. His steals totals could rise with his walk total making him a potential 20/25 player.
9. Alex Rios (OF, TOR) - If Rios stole one more base per month, his value would be higher. He sports nice peripheral numbers and should produce numbers similar to last season. Rios makes a very solid #2OF but don't take him with the notion he will post better numbers and be a #1OF for your fantasy team in 2008.
12. Russell Martin (C, LAD) - Martin was plucked off many waiver wires last season but this season he enters as one of the top 2 players at his position. Martin has a good chance of posting 20/20 numbers this season with above average runs and Rbi totals for his position.
15. Gary Sheffield (OF, DET) - Sheff is in the decline of his career but that doesn't mean he isn't a useful player. Injuries prevented him from finishing what had been a great 2007 campaign for the well-traveled veteran. Anything more than a 20/20 season and .270s average in 2008 would be gravy for this often overlooked power/speed player on draft day.
13. Alex Gordon (1B/3B, KC) - Gordon is a perfect example of what to expect from rookies for fantasy purposes. A slow start followed by a nice turnaround in the second half. Now that isn't how it works for every rookie, but it's a good rule to stick to when considering whether or not to buy into the pre-season hype surrounding rooks. With a full season under his belt, Gordon should improve upon his plate discipline on his way to a 20/20 season in Kansas City.
17. Ian Kinsler (2B, TEX) - I really like Kinsler's production from the 2b slot. He's the "nice guy" of fantasy second basemen as other owners gobble up higher upside guys early. Second base is pretty deep this year and Kinsler will deliver steady numbers across the board. Be sure to grab an insurance policy though, he has yet to play more than 130 games in each of his first two with Texas.
18. Delmon Young (OF, MIN) - Young couldn't have asked to be traded to a better team. He will have a tougher time finding off-the-field trouble in Minnesota and the team is well grounded in fundamental baseball. His new surroundings will go a long way towards tapping into his talent. He'll be taking over for long-time Twinkie Tori Hunter, and although he'll have his troubles the potential is there for a 20/20 season.
15/15 Potential
8. Eric Byrnes (OF, ARI) - I'm not buying into Brynes' career year. I could be wrong but not only do I not expect 50 stolen bases out of him, I don't think 20 HRs is likely either. I'll let someone else draft him based on last year's numbers because he is closer to a 15/30 type of player.
10. Bobby Abreu (OF, NYY) - I have trouble trying to place a value on Abreu every season. Some years he seems overvalued and other years he is undervalued. As long as he is batting in the Yankees lineup with his career .408 OBP his peripherals will will be great. A repeat of last season's 15/25 season is realistic in 2008.
15. Hunter Pence (OF, HOU) - I just can't get too excited about a guy who is short on plate discipline. Until he makes a big improvement in his BB:K ratio I'm not seeing more than 15 steals. He's being projected with the same type of upside as Corey Hart and I'm completely befuddled by it myself.
19. Randy Winn (OF, SF) - Whaaa? Randy Winn as a power/speed combo? Unless you play in a deep league or 12-teamer that start 5 OFs you won't see Winn on many fantasy rosters. But that doesn't mean he isn't in this discussion. He amassed a 14/15 season with the Giants in 2007 and even though Barry has left the lineup Winn is a very cheap player with 15/15 potential.
20. Matt Kemp (OF, LAD) - Kemp will climb up this chart heading into 2009 but for this season keep your expectations for this raking machine mild. He is still developing his plate discipline and will be fighting for ABs in the Dodger outfield. A solid player with great upside, Kemp should deliver 15/15 in 2008.
_________________________________
Thanks for stopping by...please be sure to leave any comments on this edition of COC or anything you'd like me to write about in a future COC. If you know others who enjoy fantasy baseball and are looking for some FREE insight let them know about my blog!
Rummaging through message boards and other fantasy sites, it seems there is a lot of varying opinion on the crop of players that provide power and speed to your lineup. More specifically, which guys should you target and at what value? Here is an overview of 20 power/speed players heading into the 2008 season. I'm not including typical 1st rounders since they are well known commodities.
1. Carl Crawford - Crawford gets his own category because he is going outside the first round and really doesn't belong in any of the categories listed below. Depending on who you talk to you will see projections as low as 15/40 or as high as 25/60 for the Rays center fielder. I tend to lean toward 20/60 potential. He is one of the most consistent fantasy players you'll find, has shown a steady improvement over the last three seasons and is now entering his prime years. You won't find a better power/speed combo after the first round than Crawford.
30/30 Potential
2. Grady Sizemore (OF, CLE) - He leads off for a potent Cleveland lineup and has shown durability by playing in 162 games in each of the past two seasons. The increase in walks last season from 78 to 101 helped raise his OBP closer to .400. There is no reason to expect Sizemore can't deliver a 30/30 season to his owners in 2008.
3. BJ Upton (2B/OF, TB) - I give Upton the edge over Phillips because he has a higher ceiling with 30/40 potential. Many pundits will gripe about his BABIP being high and in turn are predicting a batting average closer to .270. What no one else is saying is that Upton consistently hits the ball hard and has a good eye. It isn't a surprise to me that his BABIP is high because when you hit the ball hard and can run like the wind, you'll get more hits than the average guy. Expect an average around .290 with developing power.
5. Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN) - Phillips finally lived up to the uber-prospect hype last season but can he repeat it? Not likely, but the potential of getting 30/30 out of your second baseman warrants a second round draft pick. Slotting into the cleanup spot with Dusty Baker's squad should make Phillips a safe bet for 25/25 with great RBI totals out of the middle infield for your fantasy team.
6. Corey Hart (OF, MIL) - Here is one guy that a lot of people, including myself, feel has legitimate 30/30 potential. I'm not fully convinced he will achieve the feat but if he doesn't do it he sure won't fall short by much. Consistently being picked after other power speed combos with a longer track record, Hart is a solid pick as early as the 5th round.
11. Chris Young (OF, ARI) - Young is an intriguing draft day choice, one that many fantasy owners will struggle with. Before drafting or bidding on Young take a look at the rest of your team. How many players do you have with a .300+ batting average? You'll need a few players to buoy your team's AVG if you select the young Diamondback.
25/25 Potential
4. Curtis Granderson (OF, DET) - Here is one guy that you need to take a good look at before drafting. I'm not just talking about his splits versus left-handed and right-handed pitching. I more concerned about his ability to improve on his 2007 totals. I do expect him to continue to improve, but I'm not sure it will translate into anything but more Runs. Granderson took a huge leap in 2007 but his doubles went up by 7 and his Hrs went up by 4. Detroit is a big ballpark and I just don't see him having the same increase in power this season. 25/30 is within reach but don't make the mistake of thinking this guy will become 30/30.
14. Rickie Weeks (2B, MIL) - Injuries have derailed this top prospect since he has joined the Brewers but make no mistake, the kid can hit the ball hard. If Weeks is fully healthy to open the season he could easily deliver 25/25 production as the lead off man in Milwaukee. His injury risk has kept his value down in drafts to the point where you can make him your top middle infielder off your bench.
20/20 Potential
7. Nick Markakis (OF, BAL) - He has 25/25 ability but this breakout player from a season ago won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. With little protection in the lineup and what should be better pitching throughout the AL East don't expect him to top 25 HRs this season. His steals totals could rise with his walk total making him a potential 20/25 player.
9. Alex Rios (OF, TOR) - If Rios stole one more base per month, his value would be higher. He sports nice peripheral numbers and should produce numbers similar to last season. Rios makes a very solid #2OF but don't take him with the notion he will post better numbers and be a #1OF for your fantasy team in 2008.
12. Russell Martin (C, LAD) - Martin was plucked off many waiver wires last season but this season he enters as one of the top 2 players at his position. Martin has a good chance of posting 20/20 numbers this season with above average runs and Rbi totals for his position.
15. Gary Sheffield (OF, DET) - Sheff is in the decline of his career but that doesn't mean he isn't a useful player. Injuries prevented him from finishing what had been a great 2007 campaign for the well-traveled veteran. Anything more than a 20/20 season and .270s average in 2008 would be gravy for this often overlooked power/speed player on draft day.
13. Alex Gordon (1B/3B, KC) - Gordon is a perfect example of what to expect from rookies for fantasy purposes. A slow start followed by a nice turnaround in the second half. Now that isn't how it works for every rookie, but it's a good rule to stick to when considering whether or not to buy into the pre-season hype surrounding rooks. With a full season under his belt, Gordon should improve upon his plate discipline on his way to a 20/20 season in Kansas City.
17. Ian Kinsler (2B, TEX) - I really like Kinsler's production from the 2b slot. He's the "nice guy" of fantasy second basemen as other owners gobble up higher upside guys early. Second base is pretty deep this year and Kinsler will deliver steady numbers across the board. Be sure to grab an insurance policy though, he has yet to play more than 130 games in each of his first two with Texas.
18. Delmon Young (OF, MIN) - Young couldn't have asked to be traded to a better team. He will have a tougher time finding off-the-field trouble in Minnesota and the team is well grounded in fundamental baseball. His new surroundings will go a long way towards tapping into his talent. He'll be taking over for long-time Twinkie Tori Hunter, and although he'll have his troubles the potential is there for a 20/20 season.
15/15 Potential
8. Eric Byrnes (OF, ARI) - I'm not buying into Brynes' career year. I could be wrong but not only do I not expect 50 stolen bases out of him, I don't think 20 HRs is likely either. I'll let someone else draft him based on last year's numbers because he is closer to a 15/30 type of player.
10. Bobby Abreu (OF, NYY) - I have trouble trying to place a value on Abreu every season. Some years he seems overvalued and other years he is undervalued. As long as he is batting in the Yankees lineup with his career .408 OBP his peripherals will will be great. A repeat of last season's 15/25 season is realistic in 2008.
15. Hunter Pence (OF, HOU) - I just can't get too excited about a guy who is short on plate discipline. Until he makes a big improvement in his BB:K ratio I'm not seeing more than 15 steals. He's being projected with the same type of upside as Corey Hart and I'm completely befuddled by it myself.
19. Randy Winn (OF, SF) - Whaaa? Randy Winn as a power/speed combo? Unless you play in a deep league or 12-teamer that start 5 OFs you won't see Winn on many fantasy rosters. But that doesn't mean he isn't in this discussion. He amassed a 14/15 season with the Giants in 2007 and even though Barry has left the lineup Winn is a very cheap player with 15/15 potential.
20. Matt Kemp (OF, LAD) - Kemp will climb up this chart heading into 2009 but for this season keep your expectations for this raking machine mild. He is still developing his plate discipline and will be fighting for ABs in the Dodger outfield. A solid player with great upside, Kemp should deliver 15/15 in 2008.
_________________________________
Thanks for stopping by...please be sure to leave any comments on this edition of COC or anything you'd like me to write about in a future COC. If you know others who enjoy fantasy baseball and are looking for some FREE insight let them know about my blog!
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Skinny Dipping in Your Office Pool
It's more than madness. The BUZZZ of the upcoming weekend and Selection Sunday is equal to a swarm of bumble bees hovering around your little cubicle or office the entire workday. And now you are left with a choice: what to do about this buzzing going on all around me? What you do today will ultimately affect what happens on Monday next week. If you own a company or are a manager then you are preparing for one of the least productive three week periods of the year. But if you are smart you'll follow along with the buzz and see what it's all about.
It's March Madness folks and even if you don't follow college basketball you'll be pulled into some sort of bracket pool. So here is a little primer to help prepare you for your office pool experience.
1. Dumb luck is real. Even if you are an expert on college basketball and have a Freudian knowledge of this year's field of 65 you cannot stop this magical ingredient that gives this event lasting flavor.
2. Coaching matters. The players may play the game but coaches are equally important in tallying wins in the Big Dance. Don't go overboard and fill out your bracket based on which team has the better coach, but factor in the chiefs as you consider upsets.
3. Names and Colors. We've all sat there in early April scratching our heads after Suzy from accounting was just handed her second place winnings. All she did was pick the schools from the states she liked or the teams who had the best looking jerseys. Don't beat yourself up, refer back to #1 and you'll understand anyone can win.
4. Location Location Location. A neutral site doesn't mean the crowd will be neutral. It also doesn't mean there isn't an advantage for the team that rolled into town after a 50 minute bus ride versus the team that spent six hours on a charter flight the night before. The Selection Committee uses a "pod system" to reward higher ranked teams but as with all systems, there are glitches. Look and see where those five and six seeds are playing, it makes a difference.
5. HAVE FUN. Don't get into the pool if you're not going to have some fun with it. This is one time where skinny dipping is highly encouraged and getting wild and crazy is a good thing. Refer back to #3 and #1 if you don't believe me. Buzzer-beaters should be exciting (or agonizing if your favorite team just lost). Watching one of your Final Four teams go down in the second round is tough but it doesn't mean you can't enjoy the rest of the tournament. If a buzzer-beater becomes a source of pain because of a poor financial decision on your part then you are missing the boat entirely. Part of having fun is not over extending yourself or putting too much financial gain/loss on your bracket.
Good Luck!
It's March Madness folks and even if you don't follow college basketball you'll be pulled into some sort of bracket pool. So here is a little primer to help prepare you for your office pool experience.
1. Dumb luck is real. Even if you are an expert on college basketball and have a Freudian knowledge of this year's field of 65 you cannot stop this magical ingredient that gives this event lasting flavor.
2. Coaching matters. The players may play the game but coaches are equally important in tallying wins in the Big Dance. Don't go overboard and fill out your bracket based on which team has the better coach, but factor in the chiefs as you consider upsets.
3. Names and Colors. We've all sat there in early April scratching our heads after Suzy from accounting was just handed her second place winnings. All she did was pick the schools from the states she liked or the teams who had the best looking jerseys. Don't beat yourself up, refer back to #1 and you'll understand anyone can win.
4. Location Location Location. A neutral site doesn't mean the crowd will be neutral. It also doesn't mean there isn't an advantage for the team that rolled into town after a 50 minute bus ride versus the team that spent six hours on a charter flight the night before. The Selection Committee uses a "pod system" to reward higher ranked teams but as with all systems, there are glitches. Look and see where those five and six seeds are playing, it makes a difference.
5. HAVE FUN. Don't get into the pool if you're not going to have some fun with it. This is one time where skinny dipping is highly encouraged and getting wild and crazy is a good thing. Refer back to #3 and #1 if you don't believe me. Buzzer-beaters should be exciting (or agonizing if your favorite team just lost). Watching one of your Final Four teams go down in the second round is tough but it doesn't mean you can't enjoy the rest of the tournament. If a buzzer-beater becomes a source of pain because of a poor financial decision on your part then you are missing the boat entirely. Part of having fun is not over extending yourself or putting too much financial gain/loss on your bracket.
Good Luck!
Thursday, March 6, 2008
RIP (Retire in Peace)
So I was pondering about what I should write today and no matter how much I said, " No Jake, EVERYONE is talking about that" I feel I too must join the masses on this one (Though I did force myself to wait a few days).
Favre is many things, but to Bears fans he is everything we haven't had in a QB and plays on our most hated rival. I have been waiting for this day for over two years. But I am also realistic. So forgive me if I am not fully accepting of this announced retirement. Plenty of players have come back out of retirement and all it would take is an injury to Aaron Rogers during training camp or within the first four weeks of the season to get out the #4 jersey again. And if that happened, I bet this is the conversation that would take place within an hour or two of the post-game interviews.
(phone ringing)
"Hello?"
"Brett? Coach McCarthy here"
"Hey coach, my plane lands in Green Bay tonight at 7:44 pm."
"Practice starts at six, see you there at four?"
"You got it coach. I gotta finish packing so I'll see ya tomorrow"
"OK Brett, bye"
(Click)
And just like that, probably just in time for a Monday night tilt against the Bears, Brett Favre will run onto the field for the Green Bay Packers-again. It'll make me sick to my stomach, but I'll love it and soak it up like a sponge.
Even though the rivalry will continue long after Favre hangs em up for good, I'd love to see the Bears get another crack at #4. The best players evoke the most competitiveness out of their opponents and rival fans. I love football, but its the players and the rivalries that make me a true fan of the game. Favre did his part in making the Bears vs. Packers rivalry better and for that I say thank you Brett. But I'd be lying if I told you I wasn't truly elated.
Population in Canton, OH just went up by one.
Favre is many things, but to Bears fans he is everything we haven't had in a QB and plays on our most hated rival. I have been waiting for this day for over two years. But I am also realistic. So forgive me if I am not fully accepting of this announced retirement. Plenty of players have come back out of retirement and all it would take is an injury to Aaron Rogers during training camp or within the first four weeks of the season to get out the #4 jersey again. And if that happened, I bet this is the conversation that would take place within an hour or two of the post-game interviews.
(phone ringing)
"Hello?"
"Brett? Coach McCarthy here"
"Hey coach, my plane lands in Green Bay tonight at 7:44 pm."
"Practice starts at six, see you there at four?"
"You got it coach. I gotta finish packing so I'll see ya tomorrow"
"OK Brett, bye"
(Click)
And just like that, probably just in time for a Monday night tilt against the Bears, Brett Favre will run onto the field for the Green Bay Packers-again. It'll make me sick to my stomach, but I'll love it and soak it up like a sponge.
Even though the rivalry will continue long after Favre hangs em up for good, I'd love to see the Bears get another crack at #4. The best players evoke the most competitiveness out of their opponents and rival fans. I love football, but its the players and the rivalries that make me a true fan of the game. Favre did his part in making the Bears vs. Packers rivalry better and for that I say thank you Brett. But I'd be lying if I told you I wasn't truly elated.
Population in Canton, OH just went up by one.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Fantasy Fodder: Draft Prep '08
With the fantasy baseball season's first big drafting weekend upon us more people are doing their research and seeking out expert advice, rankings and insight to go along with the forecasts and projections listed in whichever fantasy magazines they have purchased in the last month.
You can find that information in a variety of places on the web. But it is hard to find a whole lot of info on lesser known types who can have a huge impact on your draft. Last season right before my draft I spent about an hour combing over the latest news and found out that Tampa was likely to find a spot for BJ Upton and that he had a good shot at getting over 400 ABs in a utility role. So I took him with my 23rd draft choice. Not a bad pick at that point in the draft. That leads me to one of my biggest tips.
READ THE LATEST NEWS BEFORE YOUR DRAFT!
You know your draft is on Sunday, your rankings should be good to go by Saturday at the latest. Give yourself about an hour before the draft to read the latest MLB news. That is about as easy as it can get. You can visit a few message boards if you have the time as well. It isn't rocket science but you can find a lot of useful information. It's only Wednesday, but a quick browsing of the news will reveal a nugget that will impact drafts throughout the weekend.
Fransico Liriano is scheduled to make his first appearance of the spring on Friday. Liriano was among the league's best pitchers 2006 before being shut down and having TJS. He has had about a year and a half to recover which is a little more than the year that most pitchers take off before pitching again. Those two or three innings are going to impact your draft. I've seen Liriano drafted around 75-80 overall and I have seen him fall as late as the 120s. Some people are high on him, like myself, and others won't touch him. If he gets torched for two runs on five hits in two innings you can probably expect to see him go later. But if he pitches well you should expect those owners like me that are high on him to have more confidence in taking him.
You don't want to be the guy who drafts a player in the sixth round who tore his ACL in yesterday's intra-squad game do you? Do yourself a favor and take a gander through the news before your draft.
I'll finish up with a few guys you should look at toward the end of your draft as you round out your roster. These guys are not "sleepers," they are quality "depth" that will come in handy if your starter goes down for 2-4 weeks. These are guys you should be able to get towards the end of most 12 team drafts.
1. Billy Butler, KC - He has OF and 1b eligibility in yahoo leagues but will be the Royals' primary DH. He is still young and developing as a major league hitter but 80/20/80 with a decent average is within reach. Look for him in the mid teens.
2. Ty Wiggington, HOU - Nothing flashy but multi-positional eligibility and 20+ HR power in a decent lineup and small ballpark. Should go mid to late teens, has more value in leagues that use CI, MI.
3. Justin Upton, ARI - The short and sweet on Upton is that he is a big talent. Whether he puts it together this season or not is unknown but the upside warrants a pick after round 20.
4. Jhonny Peralta, CLE - You wouldn't want him as your everyday fantasy SS but he provides good bang for your buck. Often overlooked on draft day, Peralta has decent pop from the SS position. Considering he can be had around round 20 that's pretty good value.
5. Jeff Keppinger, CIN - I liked this guy at the end of last season and he should be on your radar. As it stands right now he isn't starting, but if injuries open up a spot in the lineup he will be a nice addition to your team. SS Alex Gonzalez looks like he will miss the start of the season which could lead to an early two week audition before Gonzalez returns. He'll go undrafted in most leagues.
You can find that information in a variety of places on the web. But it is hard to find a whole lot of info on lesser known types who can have a huge impact on your draft. Last season right before my draft I spent about an hour combing over the latest news and found out that Tampa was likely to find a spot for BJ Upton and that he had a good shot at getting over 400 ABs in a utility role. So I took him with my 23rd draft choice. Not a bad pick at that point in the draft. That leads me to one of my biggest tips.
READ THE LATEST NEWS BEFORE YOUR DRAFT!
You know your draft is on Sunday, your rankings should be good to go by Saturday at the latest. Give yourself about an hour before the draft to read the latest MLB news. That is about as easy as it can get. You can visit a few message boards if you have the time as well. It isn't rocket science but you can find a lot of useful information. It's only Wednesday, but a quick browsing of the news will reveal a nugget that will impact drafts throughout the weekend.
Fransico Liriano is scheduled to make his first appearance of the spring on Friday. Liriano was among the league's best pitchers 2006 before being shut down and having TJS. He has had about a year and a half to recover which is a little more than the year that most pitchers take off before pitching again. Those two or three innings are going to impact your draft. I've seen Liriano drafted around 75-80 overall and I have seen him fall as late as the 120s. Some people are high on him, like myself, and others won't touch him. If he gets torched for two runs on five hits in two innings you can probably expect to see him go later. But if he pitches well you should expect those owners like me that are high on him to have more confidence in taking him.
You don't want to be the guy who drafts a player in the sixth round who tore his ACL in yesterday's intra-squad game do you? Do yourself a favor and take a gander through the news before your draft.
I'll finish up with a few guys you should look at toward the end of your draft as you round out your roster. These guys are not "sleepers," they are quality "depth" that will come in handy if your starter goes down for 2-4 weeks. These are guys you should be able to get towards the end of most 12 team drafts.
1. Billy Butler, KC - He has OF and 1b eligibility in yahoo leagues but will be the Royals' primary DH. He is still young and developing as a major league hitter but 80/20/80 with a decent average is within reach. Look for him in the mid teens.
2. Ty Wiggington, HOU - Nothing flashy but multi-positional eligibility and 20+ HR power in a decent lineup and small ballpark. Should go mid to late teens, has more value in leagues that use CI, MI.
3. Justin Upton, ARI - The short and sweet on Upton is that he is a big talent. Whether he puts it together this season or not is unknown but the upside warrants a pick after round 20.
4. Jhonny Peralta, CLE - You wouldn't want him as your everyday fantasy SS but he provides good bang for your buck. Often overlooked on draft day, Peralta has decent pop from the SS position. Considering he can be had around round 20 that's pretty good value.
5. Jeff Keppinger, CIN - I liked this guy at the end of last season and he should be on your radar. As it stands right now he isn't starting, but if injuries open up a spot in the lineup he will be a nice addition to your team. SS Alex Gonzalez looks like he will miss the start of the season which could lead to an early two week audition before Gonzalez returns. He'll go undrafted in most leagues.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Injected Rejects
Ok, I understand the need for media to cover the steroid saga as it relates to sports. But this is really pathetic and I've had enough of it. Can we please ration out the steroid hoopla? If you force me to eat it with my morning bowl of cereal then don't make me have another helping during my commute home from work. Clemens this, Radomsky that, hey Andy are you mentally ready for the season...ENOUGH!
Tell me how the battle for second base is going in Denver or who has the early lead to be the Braves' fifth starter but don't go into steroids every other half minute. Unless of course, MLB is ready to admit guilt and make change. I'm not one to get mixed up into politics, but all this talk of change is something that could go a long way with Major League Baseball. If you are America's national pastime, act like it. Baseball like anything historically relevant has eras. Eras are classified by dates, one to signal the beginning and another to signal the end. If baseball wants to stamp an ending date on their current era they need to stop trying to reinvent the wheel.
We can test for HGH and steroids now. I wouldn't want to submit blood samples to my employer either, but if you told me my $116,573.23 bi-weekly pay check and ability to get paid for playing a game depended on me allowing blood samples to be taken I would have to think long and hard about it. When someone is willing to provide you and your extended family a wealthier lifestyle because of a game and they simply ask you to do your part in making sure that game is fair it isn't an invasion of privacy. You can say yes or no and go on with your life.
If baseball wants to continue tap-dancing on a land mine they can continue to do so, but don't infect my love for baseball with your guilt and shame. I respect the game and the players who respect the game. Baseball's injected rejects will fade away but the game will always remain. Now if you would, I need to get back to my Raisin Bran Crunch. What's that? Soriano fractured his finger...
Tell me how the battle for second base is going in Denver or who has the early lead to be the Braves' fifth starter but don't go into steroids every other half minute. Unless of course, MLB is ready to admit guilt and make change. I'm not one to get mixed up into politics, but all this talk of change is something that could go a long way with Major League Baseball. If you are America's national pastime, act like it. Baseball like anything historically relevant has eras. Eras are classified by dates, one to signal the beginning and another to signal the end. If baseball wants to stamp an ending date on their current era they need to stop trying to reinvent the wheel.
We can test for HGH and steroids now. I wouldn't want to submit blood samples to my employer either, but if you told me my $116,573.23 bi-weekly pay check and ability to get paid for playing a game depended on me allowing blood samples to be taken I would have to think long and hard about it. When someone is willing to provide you and your extended family a wealthier lifestyle because of a game and they simply ask you to do your part in making sure that game is fair it isn't an invasion of privacy. You can say yes or no and go on with your life.
If baseball wants to continue tap-dancing on a land mine they can continue to do so, but don't infect my love for baseball with your guilt and shame. I respect the game and the players who respect the game. Baseball's injected rejects will fade away but the game will always remain. Now if you would, I need to get back to my Raisin Bran Crunch. What's that? Soriano fractured his finger...
Thursday, February 28, 2008
NHL Alive At Deadline
Trade deadlines are like the proverbial "line in the sand." Your either going to try and win this season or pack it in and plan towards next year. As usual, the NHL trade deadline past this week with a flurry of movement. But the deals that happened this week take a back seat to what happened yesterday.
I've often flirted with the notion of becoming a coach, but then I am reminded of why being a coach just flat out sucks sometimes. Ottawa fired its head coach after leading the Sens to the current best record in the conference. Sure, they have been playing poorer lately and allowed Montreal a share of the lead but do they really think the .500 play was poor coaching? Of course not. But they needed to send a message to the team and since they can't get rid of the team, they get rid of the coach. I love sports and strategy and coaching is very appealing, but the job security is day-to-day. No thanks, not for me.
So back to the deadline deals. Most of the moves dealt with depth, toughness and getting that extra player who has playoff experience on your roster. The biggest move for the short term is Pittsburgh landing Marian Hossa from Atlanta. Pittsburgh came out of nowhere with this one and set themselves up for a real chance to make a run. They are getting Fleury back between the pipes which gives them three good options in the net. They will be getting Sid the kid back shortly and he will probably be paired with Hossa on the top line. The other phenom, Malkin, who has kept the offense clicking during Crosby's absence will center the second line. The biggest winner could very easily be Ryan Malone, who has caught fire skating with Malkin. It's possible that the Pens will keep him skating with Malkin upon Crosby's return, but Pittsburgh could opt to keep him on the top line alongside Crosby and Hossa. For those of you playing fantasy hockey, take a look at obtaining Malone. Pittsburgh gave up quite a bit, but if their trio of goaltenders can hold the fort down behind the offensive talent, this young team could surprise when Lord Stanley's name comes calling.
The biggest move impacting the long term is the Dallas/Tampa Bay trade involving Brad Richards for Mike Smith. Richards will be the new centerpiece as Mike Madano fades away while Smith could become a franchise goalie for the Lightning. This is a good deal for both teams, but Tampa must fill in around Lacavlier and St. Louis in the off-season to contend next season.
Another trade that is noteworthy is the Canadiens shipping Huet to Washington. There is no doubt Montreal's recent rise and strong play over the past weeks has been due in part to Carey Price playing well. So well, Montreal decided to stick with him as their man. Without an experienced back up on the roster the Canadiens will sink or swim behind their rookie goalie and I say GREAT! It's always nice to see a young netminder get a chance to shine and if there is one organization that knows a thing or two about goalies it's Montreal. Good luck to ya kid!
I've often flirted with the notion of becoming a coach, but then I am reminded of why being a coach just flat out sucks sometimes. Ottawa fired its head coach after leading the Sens to the current best record in the conference. Sure, they have been playing poorer lately and allowed Montreal a share of the lead but do they really think the .500 play was poor coaching? Of course not. But they needed to send a message to the team and since they can't get rid of the team, they get rid of the coach. I love sports and strategy and coaching is very appealing, but the job security is day-to-day. No thanks, not for me.
So back to the deadline deals. Most of the moves dealt with depth, toughness and getting that extra player who has playoff experience on your roster. The biggest move for the short term is Pittsburgh landing Marian Hossa from Atlanta. Pittsburgh came out of nowhere with this one and set themselves up for a real chance to make a run. They are getting Fleury back between the pipes which gives them three good options in the net. They will be getting Sid the kid back shortly and he will probably be paired with Hossa on the top line. The other phenom, Malkin, who has kept the offense clicking during Crosby's absence will center the second line. The biggest winner could very easily be Ryan Malone, who has caught fire skating with Malkin. It's possible that the Pens will keep him skating with Malkin upon Crosby's return, but Pittsburgh could opt to keep him on the top line alongside Crosby and Hossa. For those of you playing fantasy hockey, take a look at obtaining Malone. Pittsburgh gave up quite a bit, but if their trio of goaltenders can hold the fort down behind the offensive talent, this young team could surprise when Lord Stanley's name comes calling.
The biggest move impacting the long term is the Dallas/Tampa Bay trade involving Brad Richards for Mike Smith. Richards will be the new centerpiece as Mike Madano fades away while Smith could become a franchise goalie for the Lightning. This is a good deal for both teams, but Tampa must fill in around Lacavlier and St. Louis in the off-season to contend next season.
Another trade that is noteworthy is the Canadiens shipping Huet to Washington. There is no doubt Montreal's recent rise and strong play over the past weeks has been due in part to Carey Price playing well. So well, Montreal decided to stick with him as their man. Without an experienced back up on the roster the Canadiens will sink or swim behind their rookie goalie and I say GREAT! It's always nice to see a young netminder get a chance to shine and if there is one organization that knows a thing or two about goalies it's Montreal. Good luck to ya kid!
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Baseball Hype
In about a week or so, someone will be hitting .600 in Spring Training and they'll be getting a ton of exposure. With spring training underway, baseball fans are getting excited about their respective teams. With spring training games now being played, your fantasy baseball fans are just flat out giddy. The result is typical inflated optimism by baseball fans combined with the buzz of the fantasy world. The hype machine is in full gear and while it is fun and interesting to follow as a baseball fan it can have an impact on your fantasy baseball team(s).
Who is being over-hyped?
Chad Billingsley - Once he was moved into the rotation last season his ERA went down and his WHIP and BAA skyrocketed. A decent K rate does not erase 46 BBs in 16 starts.
Lance Berkman - 'Bounceback' and 'rebound' are words you'll see accompanied next to this guy's name heading into 2008. Look a little closer than his unusual slow start and you'll see a normal decline for a player his age. His great second half that people point to as being his typical production include a .247 batting in July and .269 in September. He is still decent but should be closer to Derrick Lee than Mark Teixeira in rankings and value.
Ryan Braun - The numbers he put up last year in so few ABs were not just incredible they were astronomical. His stock is falling a little in recent weeks but he carries more risk than you should be willing to take that early in the draft. He has nowhere to go but down and pitchers will adjust to him in his sophomore compaign.
MOST OVER HYPED TEAM: NEW YORK YANKEES
Sure they will win, but 90+ wins seems like a lot considering the pitching staff they have and the division they play in. What happens when one of their SPs goes down for 4-6 weeks? I love Girardi and the lineup will produce plenty of runs but the pitching has to hold up in a tough division.
Who is being underhyped?
Hideki Matsui - Conservatively a .300/100/20/100 OF going later due to last season's injury riddled season. Solid #2 OF that can be has for the price of a #3 OF.
John Smoltz - May be old, but no signs of rust. Getting 200Ks and a sub 3 ERA in the 8th round or later is great value.
Billy Butler - Much of the sleeper hype in KC is around Alex Gordon but this kid shouldn't be overlooked. He is a pure hitter and cheap power source (think .290 80/20/80) that has 1b, LF eligibility in yahoo leagues. Should get most of his ABs as DH this season reducing potential for injury. Perfect for rounding out your roster in regular leagues and great CI or 5th OF in deeper leagues.
MOST UNDERHYPED TEAM: TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Losing your ace and closer will lead to losses for any team. The Blue Jays still managed 83 wins last season in the AL East without them. This team knows it can compete in this division and should the Yankees and/or Red Sox incur any injury setbacks don't be surprised to see the Blue Jays in the playoff hunt come September.
It's still early and the hype machine is running around the clock. The more hype surrounding a guy the more his value will rise or fall. Hype often leads to you loving or hating a guy too much which can blind you to great value picks throughout your draft or auction.
Who is being over-hyped?
Chad Billingsley - Once he was moved into the rotation last season his ERA went down and his WHIP and BAA skyrocketed. A decent K rate does not erase 46 BBs in 16 starts.
Lance Berkman - 'Bounceback' and 'rebound' are words you'll see accompanied next to this guy's name heading into 2008. Look a little closer than his unusual slow start and you'll see a normal decline for a player his age. His great second half that people point to as being his typical production include a .247 batting in July and .269 in September. He is still decent but should be closer to Derrick Lee than Mark Teixeira in rankings and value.
Ryan Braun - The numbers he put up last year in so few ABs were not just incredible they were astronomical. His stock is falling a little in recent weeks but he carries more risk than you should be willing to take that early in the draft. He has nowhere to go but down and pitchers will adjust to him in his sophomore compaign.
MOST OVER HYPED TEAM: NEW YORK YANKEES
Sure they will win, but 90+ wins seems like a lot considering the pitching staff they have and the division they play in. What happens when one of their SPs goes down for 4-6 weeks? I love Girardi and the lineup will produce plenty of runs but the pitching has to hold up in a tough division.
Who is being underhyped?
Hideki Matsui - Conservatively a .300/100/20/100 OF going later due to last season's injury riddled season. Solid #2 OF that can be has for the price of a #3 OF.
John Smoltz - May be old, but no signs of rust. Getting 200Ks and a sub 3 ERA in the 8th round or later is great value.
Billy Butler - Much of the sleeper hype in KC is around Alex Gordon but this kid shouldn't be overlooked. He is a pure hitter and cheap power source (think .290 80/20/80) that has 1b, LF eligibility in yahoo leagues. Should get most of his ABs as DH this season reducing potential for injury. Perfect for rounding out your roster in regular leagues and great CI or 5th OF in deeper leagues.
MOST UNDERHYPED TEAM: TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Losing your ace and closer will lead to losses for any team. The Blue Jays still managed 83 wins last season in the AL East without them. This team knows it can compete in this division and should the Yankees and/or Red Sox incur any injury setbacks don't be surprised to see the Blue Jays in the playoff hunt come September.
It's still early and the hype machine is running around the clock. The more hype surrounding a guy the more his value will rise or fall. Hype often leads to you loving or hating a guy too much which can blind you to great value picks throughout your draft or auction.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
MVC A One Bid League No More
March Madness is easily one of the best sporting events all year but it is the posturing that occurs in February that has the greatest impact on event. Enter "bracketology." Following teams as they rise and fall coming down the stretch into conference tournament play is just an extension of what makes college basketball entertaining. But it also draws out the most skeptical and critical type of fan.
The most glaring aspect of most current bracket forecasts is the MVC being a one bid conference. This shows the "mid-major" label is strong as ever and in fact does have a negative impact on a conference. If an ACC team is 10-4 within conference play they are in the field. But in the MVC that is not the case. Despite strong showings in post season play and having teams (that's plural with an 's') ranked in the top 25 over recent years, the Valley is projected to get only one team. Other big conferences making a case for their 4th, 5th, or 9th bid will tell you teams "beat up on each other in conference play" resulting in a few less wins than other teams in so-called weak or "mid-major" conferences. But when that is the case in the MVC that reasoning doesn't apply.
I'm not suggesting the MVC is the best conference in all the land, but I am suggesting that using the "big 6" or "power" conference labels are just as misleading and damaging as using the term "mid-major." It's just as misguided as calling a conference with a team WEST of Lake Michigan the Big East.
The MVC is a solid conference and has its better and worse years just like anyone else but one thing it is not is a one bid conference. Not anymore. If that were the case, coaches wouldn't be signed to million dollar contracts, new and renovated arena's wouldn't be approved, a slew of teams would have a few more NCAA tourney victories instead of losses and 4 star recruits wouldn't be committing to Valley schools.
And yet here we are, bracketologists everywhere have pegged the MVC as a one bid conference (not too mention a lack of presence on "bubble lists"). You'd think after the past 5-6 years the MVC might have earned some respect. Maybe there are good teams beating up on each other in the Valley now as well. And just maybe getting 10+ conference wins in the MVC means something. And just maybe, maybe college basketball learned something from leaving Missouri St. out of the tourney a couple years back.
Nope.
Instead they will watch the season play out and then edit their "bracketology" with the accompanying quip about one less bubble team making the field because Drake didn't win its tournament.
In good conferences, three to four teams are more than capable of winning their tournaments. In weaker conferences, you have a favorite and one other worthy challenger.
If you think the MVC is truly a one-bid conference I strongly urge you to attend Arch Madness. But if you can't make it, that's okay you can catch it on TV and you won't need cable either. How many one-bid conferences have their games aired live on CBS again?
The most glaring aspect of most current bracket forecasts is the MVC being a one bid conference. This shows the "mid-major" label is strong as ever and in fact does have a negative impact on a conference. If an ACC team is 10-4 within conference play they are in the field. But in the MVC that is not the case. Despite strong showings in post season play and having teams (that's plural with an 's') ranked in the top 25 over recent years, the Valley is projected to get only one team. Other big conferences making a case for their 4th, 5th, or 9th bid will tell you teams "beat up on each other in conference play" resulting in a few less wins than other teams in so-called weak or "mid-major" conferences. But when that is the case in the MVC that reasoning doesn't apply.
I'm not suggesting the MVC is the best conference in all the land, but I am suggesting that using the "big 6" or "power" conference labels are just as misleading and damaging as using the term "mid-major." It's just as misguided as calling a conference with a team WEST of Lake Michigan the Big East.
The MVC is a solid conference and has its better and worse years just like anyone else but one thing it is not is a one bid conference. Not anymore. If that were the case, coaches wouldn't be signed to million dollar contracts, new and renovated arena's wouldn't be approved, a slew of teams would have a few more NCAA tourney victories instead of losses and 4 star recruits wouldn't be committing to Valley schools.
And yet here we are, bracketologists everywhere have pegged the MVC as a one bid conference (not too mention a lack of presence on "bubble lists"). You'd think after the past 5-6 years the MVC might have earned some respect. Maybe there are good teams beating up on each other in the Valley now as well. And just maybe getting 10+ conference wins in the MVC means something. And just maybe, maybe college basketball learned something from leaving Missouri St. out of the tourney a couple years back.
Nope.
Instead they will watch the season play out and then edit their "bracketology" with the accompanying quip about one less bubble team making the field because Drake didn't win its tournament.
In good conferences, three to four teams are more than capable of winning their tournaments. In weaker conferences, you have a favorite and one other worthy challenger.
If you think the MVC is truly a one-bid conference I strongly urge you to attend Arch Madness. But if you can't make it, that's okay you can catch it on TV and you won't need cable either. How many one-bid conferences have their games aired live on CBS again?
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