Do you use the Do Not Draft feature? You should. It will help reduce potential mistakes in your draft. However, there are times when people make the mistake of putting certain players on the Do Not Draft list when they are more of a “probably should not draft” list. It’s not a horrible blunder, but it could be costly. How many people had Bonds on their DND list last pre-season? He turned out to be a pretty useful player and at a great value because so many people were intent on ignoring him in their drafts.
I have done this myself, more than once. Sometimes it is just a player I figure will be taken too early for my liking so I put him in the DND list so I can focus on what I perceive to be more realistic options at a better value. It usually works out fine, but what if that player falls? You probably would not even realize it if he was on your DND list. Just because you believe a player is being over-hyped or going too early for your liking does not mean you should cast him off to your DND list. You might just find that player falls far enough that you actually feel he is worth taking.
So who DOES belong on your DND list? Well, that’s up to you but there are a few things you should consider before making the decision.
History. More than any other reason, players who have a history of not living up to expectations or missing significant time with serious injuries are not players you want to own. If you’ve been playing fantasy baseball for more than two years and knowledgeable of baseball this isn’t rocket science. Depending on your strategy though, you can choose to dig further and look at a player’s historical split stats. I have seen veteran owners throw out players who traditionally start slowly and have success. They then try to sell high and target second half players.
Off-field Issues. This could be a personal preference or it could be avoiding players that are likely to miss games due to off the field issues. This season, potential and imposed PED suspensions are a good enough reason to avoid some players. If you don’t want to avoid these players altogether, you could just push them down in your rankings.
Playing time. Hard to be productive if you are not playing. Get rid of any player that YOU KNOW are not guaranteed a lot of playing time but do not include players that may have an impact early in the season. If you are unsure, then leave the player in your rankings.
Weighing upside. There are a select few players that meet all of the above requirements but should not be completely ignored because of their tremendous upside. These players are worth considering if there is very little investment required to get them. Francisco Liriano and Rich Harden are two players who fit this mold. It is not unusual to see one of these two completely ignored as many owners will include them on their DND list. As a result they can be had at a very minimal cost. In these situations ONLY it is perfectly acceptable to gamble on a player even though they meet each of the previous criterion.
Using your Do Not Draft List wisely can be advantageous to your draft. Abusing the list and turning it into a compilation of players you dislike for whatever reason is not always the best way to prepare for your draft or auction.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Bracket Time: Anyone Have A Respirator?
It's time to fill out your brackets. How many does it take to formulate your #1 official bracket? It all depends on how you make those selections but if you are like me you go into it looking for the upset specials. Which is exactly why I am a little bummed this year. The Committee's choice to pair many of the mid-majors against each other early has taken some of the spice out of this year's bracket. Instead, I find myself reaching for the respirator as I choke on the all the chalk dust in the air. Here are my brief outlooks on each region.
EAST-UNC, Tenn, Louis, Wash St.
Overview: Hard to go against the chalk in this region. Top seeds will not have an easy game in the second round barring an upset. St. Joe's could rock the boat against Oklahoma but I'm seeing chalk everywhere I look here.
Sleeper: Notre Dame. This team is fundamentally sound. They will play their game and wait for you to make mistakes. On a neutral floor, the Irish could upset UNC.
My pick: North Carolina. What impresses me most about them this season is that they found a way to win a few close games. They have the mental toughness to go along with their talent and coaching.
MIDWEST-Kansas, G'town, WI, Vandy
Overview: When I look at this region I have to ask myself how good is Vanderbilt? Clemson is more than capable and Villanova has enough talent. I see three teams that could beat Kansas in the Sweet 16. Mayo and Beasley will be fun to watch but neither team is a big threat to Wisconsin. Davidson could take Gonzaga but the Hoya's are a sweet 16 lock. Do yourself a favor and go with Georgetown or Wisconsin.
Sleeper: Villanova. I like Clemson but they are too inconsistent. 'Nova isn't a Final Four team but should they find a way to win their first two games they'll be confident in their chances of taking down the Jayhawks.
My pick: Wisconsin. They play a style of basketball that is perfect for the NCAA tourney and this might be one of their best all around teams in a long time. I like them more than Georgetown because they can match up against anyone and are solid defensively.
SOUTH-Memphis, Texas, Stanford, Pitt
Overview: This is the toughest region in my opinion. Texas is battle-tested and their freshman point guard isn't playing like a freshman. Stanford will be a tough out as long as they play their game. Pittsburgh has to be the #1 team nobody wants to play right now and Memphis is a man among boys more often than not when they take the court. I like the chalk into the Sweet 16. After that go with the team you like the most.
Sleeper: Miami. I'm not sure they will even get by St. Mary's but they are not going to phased by playing a two-seeded Texas team should they get the chance. Texas might just overlook them and find themselves in a dogfight to make the Sweet 16.
My pick: Memphis. They were my pre-season pick to win it all and I'm going to stick with them despite what figures to be a tough road to hoe to get there. Of all my picks, I am most worried about this one.
WEST-UCLA, Duke, Xavier, UConn
Overview: UCLA finds itself with a nice draw (not that they needed one). UConn better hope Western Kentucky can upset Drake because their inability to defend the perimeter will be hazardous to their tourney life. The bottom of this region features many teams I like in Baylor, Xavier, Purdue and West Virginia. Unfortunately, they all got lumped into the same bracket.
Sleeper: Baylor. They have the firepower to stay in any game and they have nothing to lose. I expect Purdue to win and would expect Xavier to beat them if they got by the Boilermakers. However, they are a dangerous team that is very capable of a Sweet 16 run.
My pick: UCLA. Just like the Midwestern bracket, I'm playing it safe. There are four teams in the bottom half of this bracket I wouldn't be surprised to see make the Elite 8 where UCLA will face its first truly tough match up of the tournament.
Cinderella pick: Of all my sleeper picks I think Villanova has the best shot at wearing the slipper into the Elite 8.
If there ever was a year to do more than one bracket, it's 2008. I'm not expecting too many upsets in the opening round but most of the games played after Friday are destined to be exciting. I'm ready for some March Madness, how about you?
EAST-UNC, Tenn, Louis, Wash St.
Overview: Hard to go against the chalk in this region. Top seeds will not have an easy game in the second round barring an upset. St. Joe's could rock the boat against Oklahoma but I'm seeing chalk everywhere I look here.
Sleeper: Notre Dame. This team is fundamentally sound. They will play their game and wait for you to make mistakes. On a neutral floor, the Irish could upset UNC.
My pick: North Carolina. What impresses me most about them this season is that they found a way to win a few close games. They have the mental toughness to go along with their talent and coaching.
MIDWEST-Kansas, G'town, WI, Vandy
Overview: When I look at this region I have to ask myself how good is Vanderbilt? Clemson is more than capable and Villanova has enough talent. I see three teams that could beat Kansas in the Sweet 16. Mayo and Beasley will be fun to watch but neither team is a big threat to Wisconsin. Davidson could take Gonzaga but the Hoya's are a sweet 16 lock. Do yourself a favor and go with Georgetown or Wisconsin.
Sleeper: Villanova. I like Clemson but they are too inconsistent. 'Nova isn't a Final Four team but should they find a way to win their first two games they'll be confident in their chances of taking down the Jayhawks.
My pick: Wisconsin. They play a style of basketball that is perfect for the NCAA tourney and this might be one of their best all around teams in a long time. I like them more than Georgetown because they can match up against anyone and are solid defensively.
SOUTH-Memphis, Texas, Stanford, Pitt
Overview: This is the toughest region in my opinion. Texas is battle-tested and their freshman point guard isn't playing like a freshman. Stanford will be a tough out as long as they play their game. Pittsburgh has to be the #1 team nobody wants to play right now and Memphis is a man among boys more often than not when they take the court. I like the chalk into the Sweet 16. After that go with the team you like the most.
Sleeper: Miami. I'm not sure they will even get by St. Mary's but they are not going to phased by playing a two-seeded Texas team should they get the chance. Texas might just overlook them and find themselves in a dogfight to make the Sweet 16.
My pick: Memphis. They were my pre-season pick to win it all and I'm going to stick with them despite what figures to be a tough road to hoe to get there. Of all my picks, I am most worried about this one.
WEST-UCLA, Duke, Xavier, UConn
Overview: UCLA finds itself with a nice draw (not that they needed one). UConn better hope Western Kentucky can upset Drake because their inability to defend the perimeter will be hazardous to their tourney life. The bottom of this region features many teams I like in Baylor, Xavier, Purdue and West Virginia. Unfortunately, they all got lumped into the same bracket.
Sleeper: Baylor. They have the firepower to stay in any game and they have nothing to lose. I expect Purdue to win and would expect Xavier to beat them if they got by the Boilermakers. However, they are a dangerous team that is very capable of a Sweet 16 run.
My pick: UCLA. Just like the Midwestern bracket, I'm playing it safe. There are four teams in the bottom half of this bracket I wouldn't be surprised to see make the Elite 8 where UCLA will face its first truly tough match up of the tournament.
Cinderella pick: Of all my sleeper picks I think Villanova has the best shot at wearing the slipper into the Elite 8.
If there ever was a year to do more than one bracket, it's 2008. I'm not expecting too many upsets in the opening round but most of the games played after Friday are destined to be exciting. I'm ready for some March Madness, how about you?
Monday, March 17, 2008
NIT Pickin'
I'll be brief with my "issues" of the NCAA bracket and then head into a quick look at the NIT.
I don't feel Tennessee was deserving of a #1 seed but to pair them with UNC seems harsh. Given the choice, I'd bet the Vols would rather be in a different region than playing in Charlotte during the opening rounds.
Next up is my biggest gripe: Butler being a 7 seed. Now I usually don't get into seeding all that much but this is blatant misrepresentation! Top 10 in the polls gets you a 7 seed. This what I like to call the MMS (Mid-Major Shaft). And to make matters worse, the Bulldogs get to play Southern Alabama in Birmingham. Aren't we supposed to reward teams that win their conference and then take care of business in their conference tourney? Didn't seem to hurt Kansas or Memphis, but because its the Horizon league it isn't worth as much. Yea, ok...riiight.
Overall, it looks like the mid majors hurt themselves the most by not getting it done in their conference championships. I'm glad Baylor got in and believe they will make a little run.
When it comes to the NIT you get a chance to show why you should have been in the big dance. However, you also get a chance to show why you don't belong in the dance as well. Dayton and ISU had similar snubs and appear to be headed for a head-to-head battle but the Redbirds could have the home court advantage if they can get by Utah St. A possible in state match up with Dayton and Ohio State is worth watching.
Virginia Tech is overrated, but Morgan State will have trouble coming off a huge loss to Copin State. They are more likely to have trouble in the second round. Mississippi should roll through this portion of the bracket.
Arizona State will be playing with a grudge but a potential show down with floor burn U won't be easy. Florida and Creighton are two young teams looking to gain some momentum heading into next season. These eight teams are wide open but Arizona State should battle through into the NIT Final four.
The last portion of the bracket has a lot of great potential match ups. With Maryland or Minnesota likely headed to the Carrier Dome and an Akron at UMass pairing a strong possibility there is a good chance you will see the type of game we all want to see: A good mid-major team versus an average major team.
My NIT Final Four is Dayton vs. Mississippi and Arizona State vs. Akron.
I don't feel Tennessee was deserving of a #1 seed but to pair them with UNC seems harsh. Given the choice, I'd bet the Vols would rather be in a different region than playing in Charlotte during the opening rounds.
Next up is my biggest gripe: Butler being a 7 seed. Now I usually don't get into seeding all that much but this is blatant misrepresentation! Top 10 in the polls gets you a 7 seed. This what I like to call the MMS (Mid-Major Shaft). And to make matters worse, the Bulldogs get to play Southern Alabama in Birmingham. Aren't we supposed to reward teams that win their conference and then take care of business in their conference tourney? Didn't seem to hurt Kansas or Memphis, but because its the Horizon league it isn't worth as much. Yea, ok...riiight.
Overall, it looks like the mid majors hurt themselves the most by not getting it done in their conference championships. I'm glad Baylor got in and believe they will make a little run.
When it comes to the NIT you get a chance to show why you should have been in the big dance. However, you also get a chance to show why you don't belong in the dance as well. Dayton and ISU had similar snubs and appear to be headed for a head-to-head battle but the Redbirds could have the home court advantage if they can get by Utah St. A possible in state match up with Dayton and Ohio State is worth watching.
Virginia Tech is overrated, but Morgan State will have trouble coming off a huge loss to Copin State. They are more likely to have trouble in the second round. Mississippi should roll through this portion of the bracket.
Arizona State will be playing with a grudge but a potential show down with floor burn U won't be easy. Florida and Creighton are two young teams looking to gain some momentum heading into next season. These eight teams are wide open but Arizona State should battle through into the NIT Final four.
The last portion of the bracket has a lot of great potential match ups. With Maryland or Minnesota likely headed to the Carrier Dome and an Akron at UMass pairing a strong possibility there is a good chance you will see the type of game we all want to see: A good mid-major team versus an average major team.
My NIT Final Four is Dayton vs. Mississippi and Arizona State vs. Akron.
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