Bad News Bears
Do I like what the Bears have done this off-season? No. The Bears look like they are gearing up for 2009 by letting their younger, and more costly, talent to leave the Windy City and inserting placeholders until more help arrives. The mere fact that Grossman and Orton are in an “open competition” while Green Bay boasts a better QB even after losing legendary QB Brett Favre to retirement is disheartening for Bears fans.
New Wheels
I guess the Bears felt that if their QB situation was iffy, they should not be spending too many resources on their receiving corps. They cashed in a used Buick for an old rusted out pick-up. Next, the “Repo-man” came in to claim the Bears’ low-mileage sporty coup after they stopped making payments. Then they went out and got themselves a thrifty used Pontiac that had some appeal when it first arrived but faded away before it ever really had much success. A stroll through the garage today will leave drivers and quarterbacks alike low on performance.
What Lies Ahead
I’m hoping the Bears pan for an offensive lineman in the first and the second round. The Bears need to be able to block for their below-average running back(s) and protect their below-average quarterback(s) so he can throw to their below-average receiver(s). If they fail to heavily invest along the offensive line they can expect to repeat last season’s 16.6 first down’s per game (27th in the NFL) and ensure themselves a top 15 draft pick in 2009.
The sad truth is that if they are wrong on the players taken in next month's NFL Entry Draft, they'll be watching the playoffs in '09 as well.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Can Of Corn: Power/Speed Combos
With the baseball season a few weeks away I have decided to devote at least one blog entry per week to covering fantasy baseball. Thus, I bring you the creation of "Can of Corn." I am hoping to bring you COC each Thursday but give me a few weeks before the day is set for good.
Rummaging through message boards and other fantasy sites, it seems there is a lot of varying opinion on the crop of players that provide power and speed to your lineup. More specifically, which guys should you target and at what value? Here is an overview of 20 power/speed players heading into the 2008 season. I'm not including typical 1st rounders since they are well known commodities.
1. Carl Crawford - Crawford gets his own category because he is going outside the first round and really doesn't belong in any of the categories listed below. Depending on who you talk to you will see projections as low as 15/40 or as high as 25/60 for the Rays center fielder. I tend to lean toward 20/60 potential. He is one of the most consistent fantasy players you'll find, has shown a steady improvement over the last three seasons and is now entering his prime years. You won't find a better power/speed combo after the first round than Crawford.
30/30 Potential
2. Grady Sizemore (OF, CLE) - He leads off for a potent Cleveland lineup and has shown durability by playing in 162 games in each of the past two seasons. The increase in walks last season from 78 to 101 helped raise his OBP closer to .400. There is no reason to expect Sizemore can't deliver a 30/30 season to his owners in 2008.
3. BJ Upton (2B/OF, TB) - I give Upton the edge over Phillips because he has a higher ceiling with 30/40 potential. Many pundits will gripe about his BABIP being high and in turn are predicting a batting average closer to .270. What no one else is saying is that Upton consistently hits the ball hard and has a good eye. It isn't a surprise to me that his BABIP is high because when you hit the ball hard and can run like the wind, you'll get more hits than the average guy. Expect an average around .290 with developing power.
5. Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN) - Phillips finally lived up to the uber-prospect hype last season but can he repeat it? Not likely, but the potential of getting 30/30 out of your second baseman warrants a second round draft pick. Slotting into the cleanup spot with Dusty Baker's squad should make Phillips a safe bet for 25/25 with great RBI totals out of the middle infield for your fantasy team.
6. Corey Hart (OF, MIL) - Here is one guy that a lot of people, including myself, feel has legitimate 30/30 potential. I'm not fully convinced he will achieve the feat but if he doesn't do it he sure won't fall short by much. Consistently being picked after other power speed combos with a longer track record, Hart is a solid pick as early as the 5th round.
11. Chris Young (OF, ARI) - Young is an intriguing draft day choice, one that many fantasy owners will struggle with. Before drafting or bidding on Young take a look at the rest of your team. How many players do you have with a .300+ batting average? You'll need a few players to buoy your team's AVG if you select the young Diamondback.
25/25 Potential
4. Curtis Granderson (OF, DET) - Here is one guy that you need to take a good look at before drafting. I'm not just talking about his splits versus left-handed and right-handed pitching. I more concerned about his ability to improve on his 2007 totals. I do expect him to continue to improve, but I'm not sure it will translate into anything but more Runs. Granderson took a huge leap in 2007 but his doubles went up by 7 and his Hrs went up by 4. Detroit is a big ballpark and I just don't see him having the same increase in power this season. 25/30 is within reach but don't make the mistake of thinking this guy will become 30/30.
14. Rickie Weeks (2B, MIL) - Injuries have derailed this top prospect since he has joined the Brewers but make no mistake, the kid can hit the ball hard. If Weeks is fully healthy to open the season he could easily deliver 25/25 production as the lead off man in Milwaukee. His injury risk has kept his value down in drafts to the point where you can make him your top middle infielder off your bench.
20/20 Potential
7. Nick Markakis (OF, BAL) - He has 25/25 ability but this breakout player from a season ago won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. With little protection in the lineup and what should be better pitching throughout the AL East don't expect him to top 25 HRs this season. His steals totals could rise with his walk total making him a potential 20/25 player.
9. Alex Rios (OF, TOR) - If Rios stole one more base per month, his value would be higher. He sports nice peripheral numbers and should produce numbers similar to last season. Rios makes a very solid #2OF but don't take him with the notion he will post better numbers and be a #1OF for your fantasy team in 2008.
12. Russell Martin (C, LAD) - Martin was plucked off many waiver wires last season but this season he enters as one of the top 2 players at his position. Martin has a good chance of posting 20/20 numbers this season with above average runs and Rbi totals for his position.
15. Gary Sheffield (OF, DET) - Sheff is in the decline of his career but that doesn't mean he isn't a useful player. Injuries prevented him from finishing what had been a great 2007 campaign for the well-traveled veteran. Anything more than a 20/20 season and .270s average in 2008 would be gravy for this often overlooked power/speed player on draft day.
13. Alex Gordon (1B/3B, KC) - Gordon is a perfect example of what to expect from rookies for fantasy purposes. A slow start followed by a nice turnaround in the second half. Now that isn't how it works for every rookie, but it's a good rule to stick to when considering whether or not to buy into the pre-season hype surrounding rooks. With a full season under his belt, Gordon should improve upon his plate discipline on his way to a 20/20 season in Kansas City.
17. Ian Kinsler (2B, TEX) - I really like Kinsler's production from the 2b slot. He's the "nice guy" of fantasy second basemen as other owners gobble up higher upside guys early. Second base is pretty deep this year and Kinsler will deliver steady numbers across the board. Be sure to grab an insurance policy though, he has yet to play more than 130 games in each of his first two with Texas.
18. Delmon Young (OF, MIN) - Young couldn't have asked to be traded to a better team. He will have a tougher time finding off-the-field trouble in Minnesota and the team is well grounded in fundamental baseball. His new surroundings will go a long way towards tapping into his talent. He'll be taking over for long-time Twinkie Tori Hunter, and although he'll have his troubles the potential is there for a 20/20 season.
15/15 Potential
8. Eric Byrnes (OF, ARI) - I'm not buying into Brynes' career year. I could be wrong but not only do I not expect 50 stolen bases out of him, I don't think 20 HRs is likely either. I'll let someone else draft him based on last year's numbers because he is closer to a 15/30 type of player.
10. Bobby Abreu (OF, NYY) - I have trouble trying to place a value on Abreu every season. Some years he seems overvalued and other years he is undervalued. As long as he is batting in the Yankees lineup with his career .408 OBP his peripherals will will be great. A repeat of last season's 15/25 season is realistic in 2008.
15. Hunter Pence (OF, HOU) - I just can't get too excited about a guy who is short on plate discipline. Until he makes a big improvement in his BB:K ratio I'm not seeing more than 15 steals. He's being projected with the same type of upside as Corey Hart and I'm completely befuddled by it myself.
19. Randy Winn (OF, SF) - Whaaa? Randy Winn as a power/speed combo? Unless you play in a deep league or 12-teamer that start 5 OFs you won't see Winn on many fantasy rosters. But that doesn't mean he isn't in this discussion. He amassed a 14/15 season with the Giants in 2007 and even though Barry has left the lineup Winn is a very cheap player with 15/15 potential.
20. Matt Kemp (OF, LAD) - Kemp will climb up this chart heading into 2009 but for this season keep your expectations for this raking machine mild. He is still developing his plate discipline and will be fighting for ABs in the Dodger outfield. A solid player with great upside, Kemp should deliver 15/15 in 2008.
_________________________________
Thanks for stopping by...please be sure to leave any comments on this edition of COC or anything you'd like me to write about in a future COC. If you know others who enjoy fantasy baseball and are looking for some FREE insight let them know about my blog!
Rummaging through message boards and other fantasy sites, it seems there is a lot of varying opinion on the crop of players that provide power and speed to your lineup. More specifically, which guys should you target and at what value? Here is an overview of 20 power/speed players heading into the 2008 season. I'm not including typical 1st rounders since they are well known commodities.
1. Carl Crawford - Crawford gets his own category because he is going outside the first round and really doesn't belong in any of the categories listed below. Depending on who you talk to you will see projections as low as 15/40 or as high as 25/60 for the Rays center fielder. I tend to lean toward 20/60 potential. He is one of the most consistent fantasy players you'll find, has shown a steady improvement over the last three seasons and is now entering his prime years. You won't find a better power/speed combo after the first round than Crawford.
30/30 Potential
2. Grady Sizemore (OF, CLE) - He leads off for a potent Cleveland lineup and has shown durability by playing in 162 games in each of the past two seasons. The increase in walks last season from 78 to 101 helped raise his OBP closer to .400. There is no reason to expect Sizemore can't deliver a 30/30 season to his owners in 2008.
3. BJ Upton (2B/OF, TB) - I give Upton the edge over Phillips because he has a higher ceiling with 30/40 potential. Many pundits will gripe about his BABIP being high and in turn are predicting a batting average closer to .270. What no one else is saying is that Upton consistently hits the ball hard and has a good eye. It isn't a surprise to me that his BABIP is high because when you hit the ball hard and can run like the wind, you'll get more hits than the average guy. Expect an average around .290 with developing power.
5. Brandon Phillips (2B, CIN) - Phillips finally lived up to the uber-prospect hype last season but can he repeat it? Not likely, but the potential of getting 30/30 out of your second baseman warrants a second round draft pick. Slotting into the cleanup spot with Dusty Baker's squad should make Phillips a safe bet for 25/25 with great RBI totals out of the middle infield for your fantasy team.
6. Corey Hart (OF, MIL) - Here is one guy that a lot of people, including myself, feel has legitimate 30/30 potential. I'm not fully convinced he will achieve the feat but if he doesn't do it he sure won't fall short by much. Consistently being picked after other power speed combos with a longer track record, Hart is a solid pick as early as the 5th round.
11. Chris Young (OF, ARI) - Young is an intriguing draft day choice, one that many fantasy owners will struggle with. Before drafting or bidding on Young take a look at the rest of your team. How many players do you have with a .300+ batting average? You'll need a few players to buoy your team's AVG if you select the young Diamondback.
25/25 Potential
4. Curtis Granderson (OF, DET) - Here is one guy that you need to take a good look at before drafting. I'm not just talking about his splits versus left-handed and right-handed pitching. I more concerned about his ability to improve on his 2007 totals. I do expect him to continue to improve, but I'm not sure it will translate into anything but more Runs. Granderson took a huge leap in 2007 but his doubles went up by 7 and his Hrs went up by 4. Detroit is a big ballpark and I just don't see him having the same increase in power this season. 25/30 is within reach but don't make the mistake of thinking this guy will become 30/30.
14. Rickie Weeks (2B, MIL) - Injuries have derailed this top prospect since he has joined the Brewers but make no mistake, the kid can hit the ball hard. If Weeks is fully healthy to open the season he could easily deliver 25/25 production as the lead off man in Milwaukee. His injury risk has kept his value down in drafts to the point where you can make him your top middle infielder off your bench.
20/20 Potential
7. Nick Markakis (OF, BAL) - He has 25/25 ability but this breakout player from a season ago won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. With little protection in the lineup and what should be better pitching throughout the AL East don't expect him to top 25 HRs this season. His steals totals could rise with his walk total making him a potential 20/25 player.
9. Alex Rios (OF, TOR) - If Rios stole one more base per month, his value would be higher. He sports nice peripheral numbers and should produce numbers similar to last season. Rios makes a very solid #2OF but don't take him with the notion he will post better numbers and be a #1OF for your fantasy team in 2008.
12. Russell Martin (C, LAD) - Martin was plucked off many waiver wires last season but this season he enters as one of the top 2 players at his position. Martin has a good chance of posting 20/20 numbers this season with above average runs and Rbi totals for his position.
15. Gary Sheffield (OF, DET) - Sheff is in the decline of his career but that doesn't mean he isn't a useful player. Injuries prevented him from finishing what had been a great 2007 campaign for the well-traveled veteran. Anything more than a 20/20 season and .270s average in 2008 would be gravy for this often overlooked power/speed player on draft day.
13. Alex Gordon (1B/3B, KC) - Gordon is a perfect example of what to expect from rookies for fantasy purposes. A slow start followed by a nice turnaround in the second half. Now that isn't how it works for every rookie, but it's a good rule to stick to when considering whether or not to buy into the pre-season hype surrounding rooks. With a full season under his belt, Gordon should improve upon his plate discipline on his way to a 20/20 season in Kansas City.
17. Ian Kinsler (2B, TEX) - I really like Kinsler's production from the 2b slot. He's the "nice guy" of fantasy second basemen as other owners gobble up higher upside guys early. Second base is pretty deep this year and Kinsler will deliver steady numbers across the board. Be sure to grab an insurance policy though, he has yet to play more than 130 games in each of his first two with Texas.
18. Delmon Young (OF, MIN) - Young couldn't have asked to be traded to a better team. He will have a tougher time finding off-the-field trouble in Minnesota and the team is well grounded in fundamental baseball. His new surroundings will go a long way towards tapping into his talent. He'll be taking over for long-time Twinkie Tori Hunter, and although he'll have his troubles the potential is there for a 20/20 season.
15/15 Potential
8. Eric Byrnes (OF, ARI) - I'm not buying into Brynes' career year. I could be wrong but not only do I not expect 50 stolen bases out of him, I don't think 20 HRs is likely either. I'll let someone else draft him based on last year's numbers because he is closer to a 15/30 type of player.
10. Bobby Abreu (OF, NYY) - I have trouble trying to place a value on Abreu every season. Some years he seems overvalued and other years he is undervalued. As long as he is batting in the Yankees lineup with his career .408 OBP his peripherals will will be great. A repeat of last season's 15/25 season is realistic in 2008.
15. Hunter Pence (OF, HOU) - I just can't get too excited about a guy who is short on plate discipline. Until he makes a big improvement in his BB:K ratio I'm not seeing more than 15 steals. He's being projected with the same type of upside as Corey Hart and I'm completely befuddled by it myself.
19. Randy Winn (OF, SF) - Whaaa? Randy Winn as a power/speed combo? Unless you play in a deep league or 12-teamer that start 5 OFs you won't see Winn on many fantasy rosters. But that doesn't mean he isn't in this discussion. He amassed a 14/15 season with the Giants in 2007 and even though Barry has left the lineup Winn is a very cheap player with 15/15 potential.
20. Matt Kemp (OF, LAD) - Kemp will climb up this chart heading into 2009 but for this season keep your expectations for this raking machine mild. He is still developing his plate discipline and will be fighting for ABs in the Dodger outfield. A solid player with great upside, Kemp should deliver 15/15 in 2008.
_________________________________
Thanks for stopping by...please be sure to leave any comments on this edition of COC or anything you'd like me to write about in a future COC. If you know others who enjoy fantasy baseball and are looking for some FREE insight let them know about my blog!
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Skinny Dipping in Your Office Pool
It's more than madness. The BUZZZ of the upcoming weekend and Selection Sunday is equal to a swarm of bumble bees hovering around your little cubicle or office the entire workday. And now you are left with a choice: what to do about this buzzing going on all around me? What you do today will ultimately affect what happens on Monday next week. If you own a company or are a manager then you are preparing for one of the least productive three week periods of the year. But if you are smart you'll follow along with the buzz and see what it's all about.
It's March Madness folks and even if you don't follow college basketball you'll be pulled into some sort of bracket pool. So here is a little primer to help prepare you for your office pool experience.
1. Dumb luck is real. Even if you are an expert on college basketball and have a Freudian knowledge of this year's field of 65 you cannot stop this magical ingredient that gives this event lasting flavor.
2. Coaching matters. The players may play the game but coaches are equally important in tallying wins in the Big Dance. Don't go overboard and fill out your bracket based on which team has the better coach, but factor in the chiefs as you consider upsets.
3. Names and Colors. We've all sat there in early April scratching our heads after Suzy from accounting was just handed her second place winnings. All she did was pick the schools from the states she liked or the teams who had the best looking jerseys. Don't beat yourself up, refer back to #1 and you'll understand anyone can win.
4. Location Location Location. A neutral site doesn't mean the crowd will be neutral. It also doesn't mean there isn't an advantage for the team that rolled into town after a 50 minute bus ride versus the team that spent six hours on a charter flight the night before. The Selection Committee uses a "pod system" to reward higher ranked teams but as with all systems, there are glitches. Look and see where those five and six seeds are playing, it makes a difference.
5. HAVE FUN. Don't get into the pool if you're not going to have some fun with it. This is one time where skinny dipping is highly encouraged and getting wild and crazy is a good thing. Refer back to #3 and #1 if you don't believe me. Buzzer-beaters should be exciting (or agonizing if your favorite team just lost). Watching one of your Final Four teams go down in the second round is tough but it doesn't mean you can't enjoy the rest of the tournament. If a buzzer-beater becomes a source of pain because of a poor financial decision on your part then you are missing the boat entirely. Part of having fun is not over extending yourself or putting too much financial gain/loss on your bracket.
Good Luck!
It's March Madness folks and even if you don't follow college basketball you'll be pulled into some sort of bracket pool. So here is a little primer to help prepare you for your office pool experience.
1. Dumb luck is real. Even if you are an expert on college basketball and have a Freudian knowledge of this year's field of 65 you cannot stop this magical ingredient that gives this event lasting flavor.
2. Coaching matters. The players may play the game but coaches are equally important in tallying wins in the Big Dance. Don't go overboard and fill out your bracket based on which team has the better coach, but factor in the chiefs as you consider upsets.
3. Names and Colors. We've all sat there in early April scratching our heads after Suzy from accounting was just handed her second place winnings. All she did was pick the schools from the states she liked or the teams who had the best looking jerseys. Don't beat yourself up, refer back to #1 and you'll understand anyone can win.
4. Location Location Location. A neutral site doesn't mean the crowd will be neutral. It also doesn't mean there isn't an advantage for the team that rolled into town after a 50 minute bus ride versus the team that spent six hours on a charter flight the night before. The Selection Committee uses a "pod system" to reward higher ranked teams but as with all systems, there are glitches. Look and see where those five and six seeds are playing, it makes a difference.
5. HAVE FUN. Don't get into the pool if you're not going to have some fun with it. This is one time where skinny dipping is highly encouraged and getting wild and crazy is a good thing. Refer back to #3 and #1 if you don't believe me. Buzzer-beaters should be exciting (or agonizing if your favorite team just lost). Watching one of your Final Four teams go down in the second round is tough but it doesn't mean you can't enjoy the rest of the tournament. If a buzzer-beater becomes a source of pain because of a poor financial decision on your part then you are missing the boat entirely. Part of having fun is not over extending yourself or putting too much financial gain/loss on your bracket.
Good Luck!
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