Stats are starting to count in your fantasy leagues. Logging in to check scores and see the latest news and transactions by your league-mates will become habitual from this point forward. But the most common theme amongst fantasy baseball owners right now is a self-evaluation of how well you constructed your championship team. So this week’s Can of Corn is going to cover seven general principles you should keep in mind when scanning over your team at the start of a fantasy season.
1. You Are Biased! If you breathe and eat food to survive then you have natural biases. Biases come in many forms, players from your favorite team, your favorite sleepers, players that have treated you well in past seasons, etc. Having biases isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but you need to know you have them and where they show up on your roster so you can evaluate your team objectively. I love Corey Hart this season but he has never played more than 140 games in a season. Chances are, your roster is full of players you feel will perform considerably well. Be realistic when evaluating your team’s strengths and weaknesses. I know what Hart is capable of doing, but that doesn’t mean he won’t regress a little bit this season as pitches adjust to him (see Atkins, Garrett).
2. Career Years. I tend to avoid players who seemingly had career years the season prior because they often come with inflated prices. If you have players that performed extremely well last season they may lose value very quickly. As a result, these are logical players to consider trading early. Jimmy Rollins, Eric Brynes and Orlando Cabrera are three players that come to mind. All should be productive this season, but it is very possible they won’t have greater value at any point during this season as they do right now.
3. Identifying and Managing Strengths and Weaknesses. This symbiotic relationship is always changing. You need to be able to identify your weaknesses before you can manage them and you cannot manage your weaknesses without knowing your strengths (and visa verse). If you play in a H2H league you need to understand your comparative strength to your weekly opponent. In roto leagues you need to cash in on your statistical advantages strategically to obtain the most beneficial gains for your team. The type of league you are in matters. In a H2H league, you can have the most total home runs, but only win the category half the time. The same situation in a roto league would award you all the points for that category. In other words, the same exact team could have different strengths and weaknesses based on your league’s format. Also, keep in mind that when battling for your league’s title it is just as helpful to increase your main competition’s chances of losing as it is of your chances of winning.
4. Other Expert Advice. It’s one of the first things people do after they have their team picked-see what the supposed experts have to say about the players on your freshly minted team. This is helpful, but keep in mind the experts are not looking at your full roster of players. Unless you play in a cookie-cutter standard league, your league’s scoring and settings dictate the true value of each player in your league.
5. Balance and Depth. You want to build a team full of cub scouts. If you played fantasy football last season you will have a better understanding of the value in depth and balance. Injuries happen and no combination of a locker, snake or bottle of rum is going to keep your players healthy. So all you can do is be prepared.
6. Don’t Get Desperate Too Soon. If your team’s only shortstop is Felipe Lopez right now you don’t have to panic. Seriously, the next Chris Shelton is only days away from arriving and he might just play shortstop. I’m not saying you shouldn’t be worried, because you should be very worried. If the right deal comes along and makes sense don’t hesitate because you need to improve at the position. But before you overspend for the likes of an Orlando Cabrera, see if Asdrubal Cabrera is available. A hot start might be all it takes for him to move to the second spot in Cleveland’s lineup.
7. Risk Assessment. Risk is like debt, it’s nice to have some but too much can make your day-to-day life very stressful. Look over your team and figure out how much risk you have. Then determine whether or not you need to adjust your roster. If you feel you have too much risk and own Rich Harden, consider shopping him around if he makes another solid start. You never want to gamble with too much risk, especially if you took risk with one of your top four players.
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If you have any questions or comments I’d love to hear from you. If you have any ideas or topics you’d like me to discuss in a future COC leave them here as well. Good luck on your 2008 fantasy baseball adventure don't forget to come back next week!
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
NFL Offseason Chuggin' Along
Baseball has started and NCAA hoops is in full swing but I felt I needed a dose of NFL football so the Train is chuggin' along the grid-iron today.
1. For the record, I don't have long hair. I'm lucky if my hair doesn't recede an inch let alone grow an inch but length of hair isn't going to help in the NFL's image department. Not getting busted by the police is what helps your image. Doing quality foundation and charity work is what helps your image. Is the NFL concerned with its image or how many of its players are included in Sexiest Man lists?
2. Bruce to wear 80 as 49ers reload the Martz double barrel, high action assault rifle. Jerry, c'mon here. I'm all for being nice but you are THE man and that 80 is yours. Upgrading the WR position helps, but do they have the right guy throwing the ball? Will Martz use Gore as a workhorse or just lean on him for 15 carries a game?
3. Shaun Alexander must have ate his contract because he is slow and unexciting with the football in his hands. Hard to imagine such a steep decline. However, Seattle's choice to infuse Julius Jones and Duckett puts more pressure on Matt Hasselbeck and the defense. I'll be targeting Hasselbeck in many future fantasy drafts/auctions.
4. Whether you agree with the punishment or not, there is no excuse for losing a draft pick because of tampering. Bill Walsh is turning in his grave right now. What happened to such a class organization? And how good do the Bears look right now? Briggs threatens them and in the end he signs a reasonable contract and gets them a better draft pick.
5. Don't overlook the impact of DeAngelo Hall going to Oaktown. Hall and Asomugha will form as solid a pair of cornerbacks as there are in the league. With the addition of Javon Walker, it sure looks like Oakland is molding itself to be a "hope we can score more than you do" type of team. Oakland deserves to be bashed on several matters over the past few seasons, but not with this move. They had to improve against the pass and deserve credit in making strides to do so.
6. Seriously, I know he loves having a lot of QBs but how in the world does any NFL team allow Jon Gruden to collect them the way he does? I'm starting to wonder if Chucky has thousands of bobbleheads locked in his basement-all of them quarterbacks.
7. Chad Johnson. The NFL is worried about long hair when they have players throwing punches at coaches? Then they bring more attention to his rebel nature by having the cameras follow him to the sideline.
8. I know the economy is sagging right now and the value of the dollar is weak but the Jets are not helping the situation. Anyone else feel there is a correlation to the Jets' spending and interest rate cuts? When did Laverneous Coles become an All-World receiver? Other players play out their deals and get paid in free agency, he starts crying because the deal he signed is too small and what are the Jets going to do? They are going to go out and get some more diapers and hope they can contain the mess better.
9. Michael Turner's signing in Atlanta reminds of Shawshank Redemption. The guy didn't do anything wrong and spent years wasting away as a result. He has escaped LT's shadow and can now make the most out of what's left of his NFL career.
10. Move over AFC South. Cleveland's uprising has made the AFC North a division of power in the NFL. Last season these two divisions tied for most home wins within the division, shedding light on what has become a very tough division. I don't think you will be seeing both AFC Wild Card teams from the South in 2008.
As the NFL Draft approaches I will try to mix in some grid-iron posts amidst the baseball and basketball fodder. Thanks for stopping by, your comments and questions are always welcomed.
1. For the record, I don't have long hair. I'm lucky if my hair doesn't recede an inch let alone grow an inch but length of hair isn't going to help in the NFL's image department. Not getting busted by the police is what helps your image. Doing quality foundation and charity work is what helps your image. Is the NFL concerned with its image or how many of its players are included in Sexiest Man lists?
2. Bruce to wear 80 as 49ers reload the Martz double barrel, high action assault rifle. Jerry, c'mon here. I'm all for being nice but you are THE man and that 80 is yours. Upgrading the WR position helps, but do they have the right guy throwing the ball? Will Martz use Gore as a workhorse or just lean on him for 15 carries a game?
3. Shaun Alexander must have ate his contract because he is slow and unexciting with the football in his hands. Hard to imagine such a steep decline. However, Seattle's choice to infuse Julius Jones and Duckett puts more pressure on Matt Hasselbeck and the defense. I'll be targeting Hasselbeck in many future fantasy drafts/auctions.
4. Whether you agree with the punishment or not, there is no excuse for losing a draft pick because of tampering. Bill Walsh is turning in his grave right now. What happened to such a class organization? And how good do the Bears look right now? Briggs threatens them and in the end he signs a reasonable contract and gets them a better draft pick.
5. Don't overlook the impact of DeAngelo Hall going to Oaktown. Hall and Asomugha will form as solid a pair of cornerbacks as there are in the league. With the addition of Javon Walker, it sure looks like Oakland is molding itself to be a "hope we can score more than you do" type of team. Oakland deserves to be bashed on several matters over the past few seasons, but not with this move. They had to improve against the pass and deserve credit in making strides to do so.
6. Seriously, I know he loves having a lot of QBs but how in the world does any NFL team allow Jon Gruden to collect them the way he does? I'm starting to wonder if Chucky has thousands of bobbleheads locked in his basement-all of them quarterbacks.
7. Chad Johnson. The NFL is worried about long hair when they have players throwing punches at coaches? Then they bring more attention to his rebel nature by having the cameras follow him to the sideline.
8. I know the economy is sagging right now and the value of the dollar is weak but the Jets are not helping the situation. Anyone else feel there is a correlation to the Jets' spending and interest rate cuts? When did Laverneous Coles become an All-World receiver? Other players play out their deals and get paid in free agency, he starts crying because the deal he signed is too small and what are the Jets going to do? They are going to go out and get some more diapers and hope they can contain the mess better.
9. Michael Turner's signing in Atlanta reminds of Shawshank Redemption. The guy didn't do anything wrong and spent years wasting away as a result. He has escaped LT's shadow and can now make the most out of what's left of his NFL career.
10. Move over AFC South. Cleveland's uprising has made the AFC North a division of power in the NFL. Last season these two divisions tied for most home wins within the division, shedding light on what has become a very tough division. I don't think you will be seeing both AFC Wild Card teams from the South in 2008.
As the NFL Draft approaches I will try to mix in some grid-iron posts amidst the baseball and basketball fodder. Thanks for stopping by, your comments and questions are always welcomed.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Batter Up!
JD Drew is hurt and rumors of gyro-balls being thrown by Dice-K are in the air so that can only mean one thing. Yep, the 2008 baseball season has officially started. Grab your crackerjacks and get your glove out because it's gonna be a crazy trip to the Fall Classic.
The season begins in the land of the rising sun with Oakland and Boston carrying the torch as baseball players and ambassadors. I'll take in the games but I am looking at two things out of these teams to get a initial impression on their chances of winning it all in 2008.
First off, I am going to be watching Rich Harden. He has the stuff, but does he have the health? Tomorrow will be his first step toward a healthy season. A healthy Harden will keep the As from becoming a AAAA team but should he go down, the A's will become the land of the rising prospects. Additionally, a pitching staff without an ace will destroy a bullpen.
Secondly, I am looking to see the Red Sox play as a 'team.' They are all excited and proud of their camaraderie when they threatened a boycott, but does it translate onto the field? If today's game is an early indication I'd say yes. They found a way to come back late in the game and pull out the victory. The difference between great teams playing in the post-season and winning in the post-season is confidence and effort. Wins like this one for Boston go a long way of helping a team's confidence and effort in the post-season. Even if they are the defending World Champions. Even in March.
Fantasy Nugget
For those of you who play in fantasy leagues, take note of the Oakland bullpen. Street is in no danger of losing his spot as the team's closer as long as he remains healthy. However, Foulke was used after Embree in today's game. Embree, Foulke and former-Brave Joey Devine are the three most likely candidates to take over as the closer if Street is dealt or hurt in the near future. Embree did fine in the role last season but fits better as a setup guy. Foulke has more experience and could be very effective in the role. Devine is probably the team's closer of the future. I'd expect to see Devine sometime in August with Foulke given the first shot to close if Street leaves Oaktown.
The season begins in the land of the rising sun with Oakland and Boston carrying the torch as baseball players and ambassadors. I'll take in the games but I am looking at two things out of these teams to get a initial impression on their chances of winning it all in 2008.
First off, I am going to be watching Rich Harden. He has the stuff, but does he have the health? Tomorrow will be his first step toward a healthy season. A healthy Harden will keep the As from becoming a AAAA team but should he go down, the A's will become the land of the rising prospects. Additionally, a pitching staff without an ace will destroy a bullpen.
Secondly, I am looking to see the Red Sox play as a 'team.' They are all excited and proud of their camaraderie when they threatened a boycott, but does it translate onto the field? If today's game is an early indication I'd say yes. They found a way to come back late in the game and pull out the victory. The difference between great teams playing in the post-season and winning in the post-season is confidence and effort. Wins like this one for Boston go a long way of helping a team's confidence and effort in the post-season. Even if they are the defending World Champions. Even in March.
Fantasy Nugget
For those of you who play in fantasy leagues, take note of the Oakland bullpen. Street is in no danger of losing his spot as the team's closer as long as he remains healthy. However, Foulke was used after Embree in today's game. Embree, Foulke and former-Brave Joey Devine are the three most likely candidates to take over as the closer if Street is dealt or hurt in the near future. Embree did fine in the role last season but fits better as a setup guy. Foulke has more experience and could be very effective in the role. Devine is probably the team's closer of the future. I'd expect to see Devine sometime in August with Foulke given the first shot to close if Street leaves Oaktown.
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